What we learned: Nadal shows new Arkansas Derby dimension

Nadal overcame adversity once again en route to winning Saturday's second division of the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. He brought his undefeated record to 4-for-4 and also went up on the TimeformUS speed figure scale, earning a career-high 124.

Because of how he won, Nadal is once again leading Derby discussions. Instead of setting the pace, this time Nadal sat off another quality speed horse, put him away on the far turn and held off those looking to take advantage late. He proved how he can adapt.

Nadal’s change in tactics started when Wells Bayou broke like a rocket and crossed over the field to secure the lead. From there, Nadal, under Joel Rosario, had to settle outside.

As Wells Bayou set the pace with Nadal, King Guillermo ran in the pocket position right behind them. Storm the Court joined the trio on the outside as well. 

Wells Bayou rattled off 23.08 and 46.21 fractions, which are lively numbers for a nine-furlong race. But Nadal began to inch closer and met him in the eye approaching the far turn. Wells Bayou offered no answer for his challenge. 

Nadal secured the lead at the top of the stretch. King Guillermo tipped out and took his best shot, but Nadal repelled the bid and gradually drew clear to win by three lengths.

King Guillermo held second over a closing Finnick the Fierce in third. Farmington Road gave a mild late run for fourth, 3 ¼ lengths ahead of Wells Bayou in fifth.

Given Nadal’s proven versatility in this win, it is hard not to put him on par or slightly ahead of his stablemate Charlatan in the loaded Bob Baffert barn.

When the Kentucky Derby is finally run in September at Churchill Downs, Nadal can let Wells Bayou, Charlatan or another pacesetter lead the field as he presses and then take command on the far turn when the time is right, just as American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) did before him.

Nadal also showed he could handle nine furlongs with something left, with the pedigree there on his bottom side to get 1 ¼ miles.

Overall, the momentum is back to Nadal’s side exiting Saturday. The only question left is whether to rank him ahead of the dormant Florida Derby (G1) winner Tiz the Law. But the summer is long and a lot could change between now and Sept. 5, including various setbacks and different horses blossoming late.  

Charlatan takes advantage of uncontested lead

Charlatan scored in the first division of the Arkansas Derby with less drama. Nevertheless, he's a Grade 1 winner after only his third career start, which gives him automatic respect as an inexperienced horse with raw talent. Plus, his 123 TimeformUS number measures just one point less than Nadal.

The first division took a hit when the “Wells Bayou” of this flight, Shooters Shoot, scratched and left Charlatan without a major pace foe to test him.

Breaking from the rail, Charlatan went straight to the front under Martin Garcia and secured the lead by two lengths over Basin after the first turn.

From there, Charlatan enjoyed an uncontested lead, with Basin in second and Anneau d’Or in third. He did not go slow by any means, though, with the first fraction in 22.88 and the half-mile in 46.08, faster numbers than the opening fractions Wells Bayou set in Division 2.   

With pacesetters, a good trip is more about not feeling pressure than the raw time (to an extent). Given those same fractions, a horse on the lead could fold if another horse is contesting looking him in the eye.

Charlatan did not need to worry, as his cozy trip went on through the far turn and he began to open up on the field. Basin still chased in second, while Anneau d’Or faded and Gouverneur Morris attempted to mount some kind of rally.

Under some mild urging, Charlatan drew clear and won by six lengths. Basin held second with another even run, and Gouverneur Morris ran third.  

Anneau d’Or faded to fifth, once again showcasing the weakness of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field. Storm the Court also missed the board in Nadal’s division.

Nadal has been tested twice in his Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby victories, while Charlatan drew off through favorable circumstances in his first graded stakes win. However, there is no reason why Charlatan cannot prove his versatility at some point in the summer. There is no proof he cannot rate or sit off another leader.

Give Charlatan some time to prove he could adapt to a new situation, too, and still show punch in the stretch, as Nadal did two races later. With the Kentucky Derby in September, there is plenty of time for every 3-year-old to learn new tricks.

Easy trip or not, Charlatan is still one of the leading horses on the trail.