What we learned: Do Matt Winn results signal weak Derby field?
Fulsome not only won the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs, he beat two Kentucky Derby also-rans in O Besos and Helium by a clear margin in the stretch. From watching the replay, there is no excuse for the losing Derby runners other than being outrun late.
The race began with Helium taking the lead after the first turn, with Game Day Play chasing after him on the outside and Ready to Pounce traveling on the rail. A few lengths behind them came O Besos, who took up a great stalking position in the clear.
It is notable Fulsome broke slow and initially ran last.
Helium did not set fast fractions, with the first quarter run in 23.75 and the half-mile in 48.69. Just from a visual standpoint, viewers could tell Helium set a moderate to slow pace because Sittin On Go held zero patience with those fractions and wanted to go. For a few brief moments, Sittin On Go made his way by force into fourth.
On the far turn, Helium led by a small margin with Game Day Play continuing to run alongside him and O Besos ranging up three wide on the outside of those two horses. Ready to Pounce still followed along on the inside with no clear path to shoot through.
As O Besos went forward past Game Day Play and Helium, Fulsome made a sweeping move behind him and took control of the lead at the top of the stretch. With some urging, Fulsome had no problem opening up on O Besos and hit the wire 3 3/4 lengths ahead to win the race. O Besos was alone in second and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Helium in third.
Southern Passage closed for fourth, while Ready to Pounce had to settle for fifth after traffic problems on the turn and in the stretch. Game Day Play, who lost by only 1 1/4 lengths to Fulsome in the Oaklawn Stakes, finished a tired sixth by seven lengths. The eager Sittin On Go completed the order of finish in seventh.
Fulsome took a step forward with his Matt Winn victory. Although the TimeformUS Speed Figure is not in the system yet, Beyer Speed Figure users can note he ran a 96 on that scale. The TimeformUS equivalent is generally 20 points higher, which means that Fulsome probably ran a 116, although that is not official.
The alarming part is how easily the Kentucky Derby horses were beaten. Neither O Besos or Helium ran poorly on May 1 in the Run for the Roses. O Besos had finished fifth, only 5 1/2 lengths behind the winner Medina Spirit, while Helium flashed speed and faded to eighth by 10 1/2 lengths without a final prep race in him.
Yet in the Matt Winn, it only took a horse who won the Oaklawn Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths over the weak Game Day Play to overpower the Derby duo in the stretch.
Fulsome turned in a great effort after a slow start to win. He is one to watch if the connections decide to aim for the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in August. At the same time, perhaps he beat weak horses from the Derby field in O Besos and Helium.
It could signal weak strength in the Kentucky Derby field overall. Maybe new faces will pop up in the big summer 3-year-old races and take turns beating familiar names from the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown series overall.
In any case, the 96 Beyer is nothing to sneeze at. If trainer Brad Cox points Fulsome toward the Travers, then he deserves respect off this clear victory.
O Besos was not one of the top selections in this blog because he gives the impression of a horse who always will finish in the bottom slots of most races. With that said, it is disappointing O Besos let Fulsome take control as easily as he did.
Helium, the second blog choice, turned in a disappointing effort considering he took control of the lead with a slight cushion over Game Day Play and Ready to Pounce, with modest fractions as well. If he cannot hang on for second with that trip, maybe he is not very good.
Ready to Pounce, the top selection on this blog, might still own a bright future. Without a path to run through on the far turn, he became discouraged and fell back as they turned for home. Notice how Game Day Play also faded into his path in mid-stretch, causing more problems.
Sittin On Go needs to sprint or run a one-turn mile. When a horse cannot settle through route fractions, it usually means he needs the faster pace of a sprint race to feel comfortable. Given that all of his better efforts came at one turn, his own record backs up this theory.
Can Fulsome develop into of the best 3-year-olds? Some handicappers might believe he already fits up there. Watch out for this intriguing colt in the summer.