What we learned: Math Wizard's Pennsylvania Derby win no fluke

With a steady closing kick, Math Wizard captured the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing to became the next horse in a growing list of maiden claimers turned Grade 1 winners. With his win and Maximum Security's scratch, the 3-year-old division once again turned into disarray.

But given a closer look, Math Wizard does appear he belongs top races moving forward. At this point, this colt is no worse than any of the other top 3-year-olds. Because of the steady progression he made all year, Math Wizard gives the impression he will remain competitive in the future.

Like Maximum Security, Math Wizard raced as a claimer last winter at Gulfstream Park. In fact, the two once ran in the same race on Dec. 20, when Maximum Security won by 9 ¾ lengths.

Math Wizard got his turn next time, winning by 6 ¾ lengths to break his maiden. After stepping up to the open claiming $25,000 level, he won again by 18 ½ lengths. That day, he was claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.

Math Wizard began his stakes campaign when fourth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). He ran fourth in the Oaklawn Invitational, too, with the common thread being that he hung in both races.

But Math Wizard improved to be second in the Ohio Derby (G3) to Owendale, and he was a troubled third in the Indiana Derby (G3) when a loose horse impeded his path.

Math Wizard regressed in the West Virginia Derby (G3), running a distant sixth by 11 ¾ lengths. But that was also his 12th start in as many months. Given some extra time between starts, he put it all together in the Pennsylvania Derby.

The most impressive part is that Math Wizard overcame a slow pace Saturday.

Mr. Money's jockey, Gabriel Saez, pulled hard on his mount in the initial stages. The public's second betting choice took them along in 24.50 and 49.60 after wasting energy fighting his rider.

War of Will traveled comfortably in second with Spun to Run right outside him. Improbable did not break well, but he secured good position in fourth.

In the stretch run, Mr. Money kept fighting despite the early tussle with his jockey. He kept War of Will, Spun to Run and Improbable at bay.

But Math Wizard went out to the middle of the track and mowed all of them down, completing a steady progression from claimer to Grade 1 hero.

If this had been an outlier in his form, Math Wizard might look more suspect. But the Pennsylvania Derby was not an impossible result if throwing out his clunker in the West Virginia Derby.

The hard-trying colt deserves a shot at the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Pace too fast in Cotillion Stakes

As seen in the Cotillion Stakes (G1), if Serengeti Empress competes in a route race and fails to secure the lead, they're going too fast up front to sustain.

In this case, Jaywalk looked bent on taking the lead from the outside post, and Bellafina decided to press her. Serengeti Empress let them go on, the surest sign those leaders would come back in the stretch.

Jaywalk torched the pace in 22.75 and 46.27, setting it up for a closer. In Race 5, take note that a stakes race at the same distance opened in 25.23 and 50.55. 

Guarana settled behind them in fourth, and she attacked first on the outside once Bellafina inherited the lead from Jaywalk.

But, Street Band then came outside with her run after lagging in 10th. She gradually took over the lead and drew clear by 2 ¼ lengths over Guarana.



Did Street Band run the best race, though? That is debatable.

Guarana did more work by following the leaders and attacking on the far turn. She understandably got tired at the end when suffering her first defeat.

Bellafina ran a distant fourth by 9 ¼ lengths, but she also did pace work and even led briefly. This was one of her better efforts outside California.

As for Serengeti Empress, she faded to sixth by 14 ¼ lengths.

Jaywalk faded to seventh by 14 ¾ lengths. While Jaywalk did more early work than Serengeti Empress, there is the lingering concern that she never progressed off her 2018 form. Her lone win this year came in the Delaware Oaks (G3).

Serengeti Empress' bad races are a product of not securing the lead.

In any case, the first four fillies in this race (including Horologist in third) ran well. Give them consideration next time.

Covfefe romps in the Dogwood Stakes

For further proof of Serengeti Empress' quality, Covfefe demolished the Dogwood Stakes field at Churchill Downs by eight lengths with a 107 Beyer Figure. Previously, Covfefe fought Serengeti Empress down the stretch in the Test Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, only winning by half a length.

As the president might say, Covfefe's Dogwood romp was a huge win.

Tremendous.

Covfefe only needed some mild hand urging before gearing down late. 

Remember when Take Charge Angel only lost by half a length to Covfefe in April at Keeneland? This time, Take Charge Angel finished 14 lengths back. 

Covfefe is one of the great female sprinters of our time. She'll prove a tough customer, perhaps as the favorite, in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.