What we learned: Masqueparade overbet in Ohio Derby win

Odds and value aside, when Masqueparade won the Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown on Saturday, he did almost everything right except put his opponents away in the stretch.

For a horse making his graded stakes debut, maybe that is not a huge concern right now, as there is plenty of room for this Upstart colt to move forward as time goes on.

[READ: Masqueparade continues ascent with Ohio Derby win]

Even though he prevailed, there is an argument that Masqueparade was a “bad bet.” Bettors made Masqueparade the 2-1 favorite in the Ohio Derby off his 11 3/4-length win in a Churchill Downs optional claimer. He had zero stakes experience in his four other starts and broke his maiden via disqualification at Fair Grounds.

In contrast, take a look at the resumes of the horses surrounding Masqueparade near the wire.

Runner-up King Fury won the Street Sense Stakes last year, before disappointing efforts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). After skipping most of the Kentucky Derby prep races, King Fury made his return in the Lexington Stakes (G2) and won with a powerful late run over the sloppy track.

Keepmeinmind, the closing third-place finisher, ran second to Essential Quality in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and third to the same horse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before winning the Kentucky Jockey Club to close out a successful season. This year, he had missed the trifecta in all four starts, but his closing seventh in the Kentucky Derby and fourth-place finish in the Preakness Stakes were good efforts.

As for Promise Keeper in fourth, he disappointed many bettors with a last-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). But he did bounce back with a 5 1/2-length win in a Keeneland optional claimer and also won the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) to prove himself at this Grade 3 level.

Despite their resumes, bettors made King Fury and Keepmeinmind both 7-2, while Promise Keeper started as the 5-2 second choice. None of those three former graded stakes winners could attract more attention than Masqueparade at 2-1.    

To Masqueparade’s credit, he put in a nice move to challenge Promise Keeper on the far turn. But he began to struggle in the stretch. 

The replay shows that as Promise Keeper refused to give in to Masqueparade, King Fury and Keepmeinmind steadily closed the gap.

Masqueparade barely held off King Fury and Keepmeinmind.

For Masqueparade bettors, was it worth the win at 2-1? With that kind of price, he is supposed to put Promise Keeper away before handling the closers. Instead, he kept all three more experienced stakes runners in the race until the end.

Some readers who cashed in on Masqueparade might think “a win is a win” – and that is fair. It is difficult to argue against a winning horse. I even recommended Masqueparade in my Odds and Analysis post.

Upon seeing the opening odds, though, there was some regret to that write-up. On paper, he was not fair value below 9-2, or maybe 4-1 after the scratch of Proxy. As strange as this saying sounds after Masqueparade paid off for supporters, there are bad bets that win and good bets that lose. In this case, he fell into the former category.

Rockemperor breaks long losing streak at Belmont

For an example of a horse with low odds offering actual value, look no further than Rockemperor in Belmont Race 7 Saturday, an allowance optional claimer.

Rockemperor had placed in a number of a graded stakes races since arriving in North America in 2019. His accomplishments on this soil include a third in the 2019 Belmont Derby (G1), second in the 2020 Manhattan Stakes (G1) and third in the rescheduled Turf Classic (G1) on the Kentucky Derby undercard later that year.  

This year, Rockemperor ran third in the Fort Marcy Stakes (G3) and fifth in the Manhattan Stakes. He needed a confidence booster to get him on the right path.

After a pressing trip, Rockemperor won the optional claimer by 2 1/4 lengths at 4-5 odds.

At first glance, 4-5 odds might sound low to value seekers. But it depends on the situation and how bettors perceive the horse in relation to the field. Compare Rockemperor’s resume with the rest of the field.

The second-place Opry had lost five straight races, all in allowance or optional claiming races. In that timespan, he ran third twice and fourth once. In his most recent start on June 5, he threw in a clunker by finishing 11th by 14 1/2 lengths.

Dynadrive deadheated with Opry for second. He carried a four-race losing streak into this race, includin a third in the Woodchopper Stakes in December at Fair Grounds, sixth in the Canadian Turf Stakes (G3), fourth in a local optional claiming race and distant second in an off-the-turf optional claimer on May 30.

Similar to Opry, the fourth-place Winning Factor brought a five-race losing streak. All five of those losses came in optional claiming races, although he did run second twice, third once, fourth once and fifth by 2 1/4 lengths in that timespan. Still, the difference between Rockemperor and Winning Factor is that Rockemperor lost in graded stakes races, while Winning Factor’s losses came in optional claimers.

The resumes for the remaining also-rans do not get a lot better.

In this situation, Rockemperor arguably offered value at 4-5.

Handicappers could go through an entire card and find only two or three races offering real value – or none. Another factor is how the bettor views the horse, as maybe some people saw Rockemperor’s losing streak and decided they wanted more than 4-5. Maybe some people saw Masqueparade as a fair value bet at 2-1 in the Ohio Derby.

Regardless, this post was meant to point out that fair odds or value do not always mean double-digit odds, or odds higher than the favorites. In some situations, 2-1 or less is value, and in other races the public goes crazy for the hot horse.