What we learned: Loggins impresses in Breeders' Futurity

When oddsmakers create a morning line, their job is to predict how the betting public will act when the actual live wagering on each race begins. Sometimes, the public goes in a different direction than the morning line, and horses who seem like a fair or value deal become underlaid.

Based on the morning line for Saturday's Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, at 4-1 Loggins gave the impression of a fair deal betting-wise for an exciting colt making his second start after breaking his maiden in impressive fashion at Churchill Downs.

During live wagering though, the son of Ghostzapper dropped to 3-2 and adopted the role as the actual favorite against more seasoned foes. Some of those opponents lined up already had successful stakes experience, such as the Hopeful Stakes winner (G1) Forte, who was the 3-1 morning line favorite and floated up at 4-1.

Loggins became overbet by post time, while Forte unexpectedly offered value despite starting as the lone Grade 1 winner in the field.

Forte ended up winning the Breeders’ Futurity at those slightly overlaid odds, but Loggins gave an excellent effort almost worthy of his 3-2 odds.

Loggins found himself involved in the pace from the beginning after a good start. Jockey Florent Geroux urged Loggins along from the inside to secure an upfront position, and he responded and moved up the rail alongside a wall of horses to his right as they rounded the initial turn.

Bourbon Bash held a slight lead through the opening quarter in 22.94 seconds, while Newgate traveled in second on the outside. Loggins did not let the pair cross over him. He held his inside position in third and about a neck behind Bourbon Bash.

Loggins went forward and took the lead on the inside by the half-mile fraction, which went in 46.36 seconds. According to TimeformUS, both the opening quarter- and half-mile were labeled in red, indicating a fast pace.

As for Forte, he needed to make up about five lengths from seventh at and started to pick off horses once they approached the far turn. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Forte to the outside to avoid the traffic ahead.

Loggins moved well on the front end and earned temporary breathing room on the far turn with Bourbon Bash throwing in the towel and Newgate struggling to keep pace as well. On the inside, Frosted Departure failed to take advantage of the new space between Loggins and the chasing group. Besides Loggins, only Forte had a shot. 

With plenty of horse underneath him, Geroux guided Loggins into the stretch. But Forte now threatened Loggins with his outside move and took a small lead as the pair entered the top of the stretch. The two of them separated from the field, with Loggins refusing to back down from the challenge thrown at him in only his second career start.

At one point, Loggins pulled back even again and nearly completed a great win with the race dynamics against him. Forte fought back though and prevailed to win by a neck over the valiant Loggins, who did everything right in his graded-stakes debut except win the race.

In review of Loggins' trip, Loggins secured an upfront position through the first turn after a good break. He endured a fast pace and moved forward on the inside to lead the field under pressure from Bourbon Bash and Newgate. When challenged on the far turn by Forte, Loggins answered the call and stuck close to Forte for the entire stretch run.

But Loggins did not win. Forte completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.74 with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Because Loggins endured the fast pace, he earned a pace-adjusted 118 on TimeformUS.

The three-point difference on TimeformUS in Loggins’ favor shows how well he ran in defeat. He looks like a major player in this division. Sure, he began the race at an underlaid price, but now he deserves that kind of respect.

As for Forte, he handled a two-turn route successfully while running on fast dirt, which answered a number of important questions for him leading into the race. Back at Saratoga, Forte won the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1) over the slop, and wet dirt form does not always translate to fast dirt.

Cave Rock turned in an impressive effort in winning the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) out west at Santa Anita. But do not count out Loggins or Forte in a few weeks if they run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Once horses from different regions collide, the best horse is not always the obvious one as seen on speed figures.