What we learned: Letruska still on top after Apple Blossom

One year ago, Letruska battled the great Monomoy Girl in the stretch run of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn and prevailed by a nose. Monomoy Girl passed the torch to Letruska that day and never competed again.

After leading the division for the rest of 2021, Letruska indicated she is still on top as a 6-year-old mare after winning a second Apple Blossom Handicap, and this time she won by more than a nose.

The impressive part is that Letruska handled threatening moves at different points from two former Grade 1 winners, Ce Ce and Clairiere.

On the far turn, Ce Ce moved alongside Letruska. While Ce Ce went to the attack, Clairiere also rallied into a nearby position behind them.

Despite jockey Victor Espinoza’s best efforts to encourage Ce Ce along, she could not pass Letruska on the turn or in the stretch run. 

To Ce Ce's credit, she did make Jose Ortiz go to work on Letruska. In the stretch, Ortiz brought out the crop on Letruska to maintain the lead over Ce Ce.

As Letruska managed to keep Ce Ce at bay, Clairiere tipped to the outside of the pair and started to close in at a late point in the stretch. At 2:35 in the video, it almost seemed possible that Clairiere could pass Letruska.

Letruska drifted out and looked tired as Ortiz went to the crop, but she responded well to the challenge and finished off the race with the win.

Letruska won by 1 1/4 lengths over Clairiere, with Ce Ce a half-length behind Clairiere in third. The small winning margin is not a knock on Letruska, as she beat two high-class runners who are both Grade 1-level performers.

Clairiere was one of the top 3-year-old fillies last season and figures to win more Grade 1 races besides the Cotillion Stakes (G1) before her career ends. Ce Ce has been a consistent performer for the last two years and won the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last November.

As of this writing, neither the Beyer Speed Figure or TimeformUS Speed Figure for Letruska’s win Saturday are posted. Letruska’s final time of 1:42.22 for the 1. 1/16-mile distance looks fast, though, especially when a $25,000 claiming race later in the card went in 1:44.49.

In all likelihood, Letruska will earn a high speed figure from both brands. Given that Clairiere and Ce Ce fired their best shots, it should take a good number to beat both of them. The fast final time is a good sign as well. 

Where do Letruska, Clairiere and Ce Ce go from here? The Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) on June 11 at Belmont makes sense for Letruska and Clairiere. Ce Ce fits there too, although it would not come as a surprise to see her return west and find an easier set of fillies and mares.

For fans, it is great to see all three runners in great form. 

Was Clairiere overbet?

Here is a short discussion on a betting-specific topic.

Clairiere was the blog choice on here and a win bet at 3-1 or higher. The oddsmaker listed Clairiere as the 5-2 third choice on the morning line.

Unfortunately, Clairiere opened around 8-5 and never could float back up, as the public liked the daughter of Curlin enough to bet her down to 6-5. In the meantime, Letruska’s odds came down to 4-5, but those odds fit her role as the one to beat as the year-long division leader. 

What do bettors do if the live odds on their horse end up dipping below their own fair odds? At that point, it is OK to just watch the race. Not every stakes race needs to be played just because it is a stakes race. If the race must be bet, then maybe another horse could be chosen. 

Accepting 4-5 on Letruska seemed unappetizing, but it was still more fair than taking 6-5 on Clairiere, who only had one Grade 1 win on her resume compared wth the four Grade 1 victories on Letruska's record.

Perhaps the "value" in the race ended up being Ce Ce, who floated up to 7-2 after starting off at only 2-1 on the morning line. 

Clairiere performed great in the Apple Blossom, even if she had to settle for the runner-up spot. At 6-5, though, she was underlaid at post time.