What we learned: Pace collapse helps Largent in Fort Lauderdale

With the pace collapsing in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream, 16-1 longshot Largent made his outside move to capitalize on the situation and close for a two-length victory in his first graded stakes attempt.

Largent does owe a great deal to Halladay and Factor This for his win, as Halladay went for the lead and Factor This followed.

To explain Halladay’s aggressive strategy, this is the type of pacesetter who needs a one length or more cushion up front for his best chance to win. If other horses are flanking Halladay or if he stalks the pace instead, he is not likely to win. His past running lines back up this theory.

Because of Halladay’s desire for an uncontested lead, jockey Luis Saez sent him hard from the outside to clear Factor This and the rest of the horses. Halladay did secure the lead, but Factor This kept up with Halladay's right flank through an opening quarter in 23.22 and half-mile in 46.34. Those are fast numbers for a nine-furlong turf race.

Watch Factor This hound Halladay as they separate from the field.

From a visual standpoint, Halladay never gets a breather.

The early tussle is enough to doom both Halladay and Factor This, as well as Somelikeithotbrown a few lengths back in third. Halladay still leads them into the far turn and top of the stretch, but the closers swallow him whole.

As stated before, the outside rallying horse in the stretch holds the advantage over inside, especially on turf. There are some exceptions to this rule, but getting to move in the clear is less stressful for most horses.

After saving ground on the far turn, jockey Paco Lopez wisely tips Largent to the outside for a clear shot. Then in mid-stretch, Largent takes over the lead past Breaking the Rules and continues forward to separate himself for a two-length win.

The 15-1 long shot Doswell found his way to second, while Breaking the Rules ran third at 10-1. Behind them, 17-1 Spooky Channel was fourth, with Channel Cat completing the Top 5 at 13-1.

Largent won the race, but this is the kind of horse to play against next time. Not only did he receive a perfect pace setup and an "inside to outside" trip that allowed him to save ground and rally out in the clear, he won at 16-1 and does not figure to go off at odds that high next time.

Doswell deserves credit for running second in his graded stakes debut, only two races after breaking his maiden in his first start under trainer Barclay Tagg. Even though this is a 5-year-old gelding, he might break out as an older turf star in 2021.

Breaking the Rules could not outrun Largent in the early part of the stretch, and then he let Doswell on the inside edge him out for the runner-up spot. The public has always respected this horse, but those are not great signs.

The top blog selection Channel Cat tried to move through the inside under Corey Lanerie, who seems to prefer that route in the majority of his rides. His rally fell short in this race, but a move forward might come in his second start off the bench — and for Spooky Channel as well.

Tax coasts easily in Harlan’s Holiday Stakes

First of all, the blog value choice Phat Man in the Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3) was not a “value” at all. 

Based on Phat Man’s flat return in the Lafayette, it felt more logical to conclude the public was going to make Tax the clear favorite and latch on to Todd Pletcher's Tatweej for second choice as a horse with a three-race win streak and notable trainer behind him. But Tax and Phat Man started at 2-1, and Tatweej ended up as the third choice at 5-2.

Of course, Tax then won the race (G3) easily after a comfortable pacesetting trip, making 2-1 almost seem like an overlay in retrospect. Even without any notable pace or trip issues to focus on, here is a recap below.

Under Luis Saez, Tax broke well and came out slightly into Phat Man, before securing the lead on the first turn and opening in 23.87.

As seen in the replay, Tax moves along comfortably up front.

Royal Urn provides nominal pressure in second, along with Tatweej in third. Phat Man falls a few lengths behind in fourth, but in the clear, while Eye of the Jedi and Math Wizard lag far behind the leading group to round out the entire field. Tax takes them through a relatively moderate half-mile in 46.96.

On the far turn, Tax separates himself from Royal Urn and Tatweej. Phat Man begins to roll up on the outside, but he is under a hard ride. Math Wizard and Eye of the Jedi also find their way into the picture in early stretch.

Tax opens up more in mid-stretch though and eventually wins by an easy 4 1/2 lengths. Eye of the Jedi catches a disappointing Phat Man for second, and Phat Man holds third by a length over Math Wizard in fourth.

If nothing else, this is a good stepping stone for Tax as he moves back into Grade 1 company in the Pegasus World Cup next month.

Eye of the Jedi ran a solid race, but he is nothing more than a minor stakes horse who belongs at the Grade 3 level at most.

Phat Man was a disappointment. Instead of holding second as Tax dominated in the stretch, he let himself get passed by a longer shot.

The proper course for Phat Man remains the same as last year, assuming the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3) and Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) remain on the schedule. Perhaps he will fire better in one-mile races, or his older age will catch up to him as a 6-year-old gelding.

Tatweej’s fade to sixth after stalking the pace shows he needs more time to develop in another allowance race or a soft stakes at Tampa Bay.