What we learned: Inexperience costs Mage in Fountain of Youth

With four points races for Kentucky Derby 2023 Saturday, the 3-year-olds took plenty of attention throughout the day. Perhaps the most interesting trip came in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where the one-start maiden winner Mage made both his graded-stakes debut and two-turn route debut.  

Forte made a successful return to capture the Fountain of Youth Stakes without any real problems or notes about his race. After settling behind the leaders, he engulfed them in the stretch in a sharp win. But the race did feature one interesting bad trip to discuss: when the inexperienced Mage did not break well and needed to adapt to a new situation quickly.

In analyzing the one-start runner Mage, the perils were obvious. Even though the speed figure made him a possible contender, the new obstacles in race distance and higher quality of opponents made his task hard one after one maiden sprint where he secured the lead early.

In this situation, Mage did not secure the lead. In fact, the chart notes Mage hit the gate, which caused him to break slowly in last.

Rocket Can crossed over and took Mage’s path, which ended any chance Mage could clear the inside horses. Instead, Mage went at least four wide on the first turn before moving up to join the leaders in his wide position.

Cyclone Mischief set the pace with Rocket Can on his flank while clicking off fractions 24.05 and 47.65 seconds. Mage sat right off them through the half, with Dangerous Ride in the pocket and Forte in between Dangerous Ride and Legacy Isle.

Before the Fountain of Youth, Mage knew only how to set the pace in a maiden special weight. This time, he needed to sit in a wide position right off the leaders throughout the backside, and these were graded-stakes horses. At this point, it felt like Mage had little chance to win.   

To Mage’s credit, he kept up with Cyclone Mischief and Rocket Can while enduring another wide turn. As Mage held his own, Forte began to tip outside the trio to set up his winning move and he pulled even immediately.

In the early stretch, Forte took control and opened up with mild urging. Mage started to struggle at this point, but he never fell out of the picture and still had a chance for a trifecta placing until the end.

Forte won by 4 1/2 lengths over Rocket Can in second, with Cyclone Mischief another 1 1/4 lengths back of Rocket Can in third and Mage one length behind Cyclone Mischief in fourth. Between Mage and Shadow Dragon came another 7 1/2 lengths, which is a good sign for the race.

Given the bad start and the wide trip he went through as an inexperienced colt, Mage gave a valiant effort. He belongs in graded-stakes races, although the Derby trail is a tough one. Next time, Mage needs to break a little sharper and get a clear run to the first turn.

Forte completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.12 and earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. After his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win last fall, Forte went on a break as the best in the division and returned as the best with this win.

Rocket Can outran expectations by finishing second. He can make the Kentucky Derby, but he will need to find another level to contend there.

The same comment applies to Cyclone Mischief, who ran a little better this time after setting the pace compared with his disappointing Holy Bull Stakes (G2). If Cyclone Mischief can hit the board again, then he can make the Kentucky Derby. But can he make an impact in that race?

Blazing Sevens, the Champagne Stakes (G1) winner and fourth-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, ended up eighth in a puzzling effort. He might move forward in his second start off the break, and he will need to move forward if handicappers should take him seriously.

Mage owns plenty of raw talent. He likely would benefit in the long run from not pointing toward the Run for the Roses, and gunning instead for the Preakness Stakes two weeks later to give him a smaller field and more time.

If Mage's connections still want the big race, that is understandable as competing in the Kentucky Derby is everyone's dream. From a handicapping standpoint though, it feels like a 20-horse field will become overwhelming for him, even with one last points race prep race.

As for the handicapping lesson here, the speed figure cannot tell the handicapper everything. Mage had the right speed figure to compete on this level and the pedigree said he could route fine, which led to this blog recommending him for second. But that number cannot tell the horse’s mental preparedness for the task off that one maiden sprint.

Keep that in mind when spotting another Mage in the future.