What we learned: Hot and Sultry could be a star after Chilukki win

Before the Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs, the record for Hot and Sultry in eight previous starts hinted at a filly with potential. But the daughter of Speightster could not quite compete at the highest level without fading late when she took a shot at two Grade 1 races earlier this year, and then she went on the shelf for the summer months and most of the fall season.

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But after Hot and Sultry’s win in the Chilukki following fast fractions, she looks ready to step up in class again and face the best, especially if trainer Norm Casse keeps this older filly limited to races at a mile or less.

Once Hot and Sultry took the lead early, the race felt over.

Hot and Sultry set the pace uncontested through fractions 23.03, 45.88 and 1:10.44. Even though those fractions look fast at first without glancing at pace figures, she ran comfortably while maintaining the important cushion.

On the turn, Hot and Sultry put on the afterburners, and the real show began as she began to separate from Hidden Connection in second and Be Like Water in third. Despite a sudden move to clear the field, jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. just sat on Hot and Sultry without asking her to go.

By the top of the stretch, Hot and Sultry led by a growing 4 1/2 lengths, with Oeuvre now chasing in second and Falconet winding up on the outside in either third or fourth.

At this point, Santana started to work on Hot and Sultry by shaking the reins a few times and waving the right-handed stick. She responded to the urging by opening on the field even more in mid-stretch.

Oeuvre was drifting out in second and Nostalgic came with a bid to pass Falconet in third, but they were all well behind the dominant Hot and Sultry. None of them had a chance once Hot and Sultry made that devastating move on the turn, where she created useful separation and then added to it later.

Hot and Sultry won by eight lengths over Nostalgic in a one-mile time of 1:35.93. The time sounds fast for fillies and mares at first glance, although comparing times directly is difficult because Churchill Downs did not run any other one-mile races on the card. She did earn a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the final time. As of this writing, the TimeformUS Speed Figure has not been posted yet.

For what it is worth, the runner-up Nostalgic had a career-best TimeformUS figure of 112 heading into this race, and the third-place Oeuvre had a career-best TimeformUS dirt figure of 111 before competing in the Chilukki. Hot and Sultry should earn a TimeformUS number higher than those figures.

Given the hot early pace, the finishing positions of Hidden Connection and Be Like Water were notable. After chasing Hot and Sultry within close range, Hidden Connection folded to eighth and 15 lengths behind the winner, and Be Like Water faded to sixth and 14 lengths behind. They were clearly tired after the fractions Hot and Sultry set early. 

Regardless of the numbers, Hot and Sultry gave the impression that she can compete in Grade 1 races again. Earlier in the year, she faded to third in the Apple Blossom Stakes (G1) at Oaklawn and then ran an even fourth after stalking in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill in May.

Perhaps Hot and Sultry found the Apple Blossom distance too long, and she probably was not comfortable stalking the pace in the Derby City Distaff. If Hot and Sultry uses her speed in the same way as her fast third dam Xtra Heat did in 2001, she can win Grade 1 races.

As for the also-rans, none of them did anything positive enough to highlight in detail. Nostalgic ran on for second after moving wide on the turn, but she did receive a nice pace setup after the runners close to Hot and Sultry became too tired from chasing the leader. Falconet in fourth also might deserve credit for rallying wide. Neither of them were any match for the winner. 

Assuming Hot and Sultry stays healthy and runs next year at distances of six furlongs to one mile, she will make a lot of noise with a full campaign. If Hot and Sultry runs longer than one mile, the bottom sprint pedigree might kick in, but she may deserve a look in those races too.