What we learned: Hot Rod Charlie win flatters West Coast colts

California invader Hot Rod Charlie took the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Saturday by two lengths after setting a pressured pace and fighting off his only challenger. As of this writing, the TimeformUS Speed Figure is not entered in the system yet. But the Daily Racing Form stakes-results page reveals a solid 99 Beyer Speed Figure for the win. 

From a trip standpoint, his main obstacle was a probable fast pace. The son of Oxbow set early fractions of 23.10 and 47.04 seconds, which are relatively fast numbers considering the longer distance and fractions of other dirt routes on the card.

From there, Hot Rod Charlie took on a direct challenge from Midnight Bourbon on the far turn and needed almost the entire stretch run to pull clear of him.

Hot Rod Charlie won by two lengths in 1:55.06 for the 1 3/16 miles.

Midnight Bourbon held second by only a head over the long-shot closer O Besos in third. Proxy lost contact on the far turn again, before grinding his way to a flat fourth. Eight lengths behind Proxy in fourth, the heavy favorite Mandaloun ran a clunker by finishing sixth. At 6-5 odds, Mandaloun was a well-beaten 11 3/4 lengths behind Hot Rod Charlie.

It is hard to significantly upgrade Hot Rod Charlie’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby, though, when Medina Spirit on the West Coast beat him in the stretch run fair and square after withstanding a harsh pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

Hot Rod Charlie’s Louisiana Derby win flatters Medina Spirit. Perhaps Hot Rod Charlie also put some exposure on a Fair Grounds group of 3-year-olds that had not dealt with significant outside shippers other than Señor Buscador in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). In this round, a runner with multiple graded stakes placings shook up the enclosed party.

Hot Rod Charlie remains on the fringes of top 3-year-olds pointed to the Kentucky Derby. The last round of prep races would need to look poor to change that opinion. He does look capable of hitting the board, at least. 

As for Midnight Bourbon, his chances to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby went up after battling Hot Rod Charlie for almost the entire stretch and holding second. He also made a move forward by beating his old rivals Proxy by 1 3/4 lengths and Mandaloun by 9 3/4  lengths.

Does Midnight Bourbon get tired, or does he just run one-paced in the stretch? Most Tiznow progeny love to run in longer routes. 

Also, remember that Tiznow progeny take longer to develop. Midnight Bourbon is coming along, but his peak may come later in the year.

O Besos made a move forward as well to finish a credible third. He almost caught Midnight Bourbon for second, losing the position by only a head at the wire. If O Besos makes the Kentucky Derby with 25 points, he might clunk his way into completing the superfecta at long-shot odds. For now, he is 11th on the points list.

Proxy lacks the proper turn of foot to factor in the Run for the Roses. For those hoping he runs, Proxy does sit in the top half on the Derby points leaderboard at No. 9 with 34 points, which means Godolphin will probably run him.

What happened to Mandaloun? Even if the slightly longer distance had been too long, he was too talented on paper to run 11 lengths behind the winner. If the connections decide to try the Kentucky Derby, he is a tough one to trust.

Run Classic needs a confidence builder after never factoring and losing by 21 3/4 lengths. For him, the good news is that he is eligible for most allowance races.

Travel Column turns the tables in Fair Grounds Oaks

Even though Travel Column lost to Clairiere last time, the public still made Travel Column the 2-1 favorite in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). The Frosted filly trained by Brad Cox did not disappoint her supporters.

From a visual standpoint, Travel Column's trip looks standard. She broke well, but jockey Florent Geroux chose to sit off Souper Sensational.

Souper Sensational led through fractions of 24.35 and 48.64.

Li’l Tootsie took up the clear stalking position right behind them, while Obligatory initially ran fifth in mid-pack through a compact field. As expected, Clairiere began in last on the first turn, but found herself right next to Obligatory by the half mile.

On the far turn, Travel Column ramped up the pressure on Souper Sensational. She secured the lead under Geroux by the top of the stretch and won by 2 3/4 lengths.  

Clairiere made a mild late bid to move into second. It is a slight concern that she ran awkwardly by switching to her wrong lead after passing Souper Sensational. Otherwise, she was probably a victim of a slow pace. Even without studying the fractions, the compact field through the first half was a clear signal of tepid fractions.

Souper Sensational set the pace this time. The change in tactics kept this synthetic runner free of dirt from hitting her face after some rough trips in her last two starts. But Travel Column and Clairiere both went by Souper Sensational anyway. She has little chance in the Kentucky Oaks.

Obligatory did manage to pass Li’l Tootsie for fourth. With only three starts under her belt and one graded stakes race, she is liable to improve as the year goes on.

The main blog choice Li’l Tootsie came up empty in the stretch after a perfect stalking trip. She ran on her wrong lead for the entire stretch and needs a cutback in distance. The Eight Belles Stakes would fit her well.

Travel Column shows a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for the win, while the TimeformUS Speed Figure does not show up yet in the system. This is a consistent filly, but not an exciting one at this point in terms of final times and speed figures. The betting public also seems to love her a bit too much, as they made Travel Column the favorite off a loss.

Although Travel Column can win the Kentucky Oaks, expect an underlaid price.