What we learned: Hit Show takes next step with Withers win

From a pace standpoint, the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct unfolded close to how it appeared on paper. With a lively and contested pace in front, the scenario resulted in the stalking Hit Show taking advantage on the far turn and putting away the early pacesetter Arctic Arrogance to win his first attempt at a graded-stakes race.

Instead of Arctic Arrogance receiving direct pressure from the sprinter Andiamo a Firenze, it turns out the 80-1 Prove Right took up the brave role of sitting right on Arctic Arrogance’s flank through the first half.

Arctic Arrogance posted early fractions of 23.53 and 48.09 seconds while under pressure. As they passed the half-mile point, Hit Show traveled in fourth on the inside and ready to strike about two lengths behind the leader.

At first glance, a 48 half-mile fraction might not seem fast, but remember that Aqueduct tends to slow down in the winter months. In addition, these 3-year-olds were traveling nine furlongs, which is a longer route distance.

On the far turn, Hit Show tipped outside of Arctic Arrogance and had dead aim on him at the top of the stretch. Under urging from Manuel Franco, Hit Show moved past Arctic Arrogance before the final furlong and opened up on the tired pacesetter toward the wire for a 5 1/2-length win.

Hit Show completed the nine furlongs in 1:54.71 and earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure for his winning effort, according to Daily Racing Form. Although Hit Show received a pace setup, he took advantage in the right way and left no questions at the end.

Perhaps the most interesting part about browsing through the Withers chart were the large margins between each finisher. Besides Hit Show’s 5 1/2-length margin, 6 1/4 lengths came between Arctic Arrogance and General Banker in third. After General Banker, 14 3/4 lengths separated General Banker and Andiamo a Firenze in fourth. Plus, Hit Show had 56 lengths on the last-place Ninetyprcentmaddie.  

Most signs indicate Hit Show ran a great race. At a minimum, Hit Show seems on another level than most of the 3-year-olds at Aqueduct.

Admittedly, the public did overbet Hit Show down to 6-5 odds.

Given the pace, Arctic Arrogance ran well enough in second. But Arctic Arrogance now has ended up second three times in a row at 2-1 or less. If Arctic Arrogance shows up again on the trail, he feels hard to trust from a win standpoint, even if he cuts back in the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3).

The one Withers also-ran who might deserve a pass is Jungfrau, who found traffic on the first turn from the rear and then quit mentally and never picked up his feet. Jungfrau lost by more than 49 lengths, but the impression is that he never tried after the first turn. 

In any nine-furlong prep race, Hit Show merits consideration as a top contender. Give him a long look wherever he shows up next on the trail.

Why did bettors play the rabbit at Golden Gate?

When trainer Bob Baffert entered Nullarbor in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields under the same owners as Gilmore, it seemed clear that Nullarbor was the rabbit for Gilmore to ensure Harcyn did not slip away uncontested.

Yes, owners can run more than one realistic contender in a horse race. In this case though, Nullarbor had folded badly in his only route attempt and exited a maiden win at six furlongs where he set a clear pace against a weak field consisting of maidens who were sold at less than $150,000.

In fact, Nullarbor had a claiming tag on him in that Jan. 6 maiden race. Yet, Nullarbor went from a tag on him to the El Camino Real Derby.

Somehow bettors liked the rabbit enough to bet him to 9-2, the same odds as the promising two-time local winner Harcyn. When the gates opened, Assael Espinoza rode Nullarbor with great urgency, and Nullarbor went straight to the front and opened up on the field by 5 1/2 lengths by the half.

After fractions of 23.34 seconds, 47.52 and 1:12.64, Nullarbor became tired and the main contenders took over in the stretch. Ironically, Gilmore ran into minor trouble moving around his stablemate and went inside.

As Gilmore tried to find room, Chase the Chaos rallied in the clear and prevailed by 1 1/2 lengths over Gilmore in second. Harcyn held on for third.

To give Nullarbor some credit, he ended up holding fifth and finished only 3/4 of a length behind Passarando, the morning-line favorite.

But it is hard to believe the public respected Nullarbor enough to make him 9-2 off his weak maiden win, especially with Gilmore in the race under the same owners. 

When owners enter a weak horse with speed and a stronger contender in the same race, think about whether that weaker horse is in the race to win.