What we learned: Got Stormy finds best form with no warning
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Every now and then, good form pops out of nowhere. Got Stormy’s surprising win in the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga is a good example.
In three starts this year before the Fourstardave, Got Stormy had won the first start in the Honey Fox Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream and then missed the board twice when stepping up in class in the Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs and Jaipur Stakes (G1) at Belmont. In those two latter starts, she was a disappointing fifth by four lengths and fifth by 3 1/2 lengths.
Click here for Saratoga entries and results.
Visually, she did not resemble the filly who won the Fourstardave in 2019 or even the one who ran second to the loose pacesetter Halladay in 2020 – until Saturday.
Trip-wise, there is nothing strange to point out.
Most of the field broke well, and Blowout went for the lead as expected.
Because of Whisper Not’s presence on the inside, Blowout ran faster than ideal through the early stages.
As Blowout set opening fractions of 23.45 and 45.69, Whisper Not chased in second and Got Stormy landed the perfect spot in third, four lengths off Blowout. The favorite Raging Bull traveled in mid-pack in fifth, while Set Piece trailed the field.
On the turn, Got Stormy began to move closer and Whisper Not went on even terms with Blowout.
Got Stormy tipped out and took aim at the tired leaders, and then she took over the lead in mid-stretch as the early speed began to fade. With the lead in hand, Got Stormy won by 1 1/2 lengths over the closing Set Piece and Casa Creed in third.
What happened to the favorite Raging Bull? After saving ground approaching the final turn, he tipped out OK and just failed to accelerate from there. Casa Creed stayed to his outside, and then Raging Bull found traffic when Whisper Not started to fade. Raging Bull ended up sixth – disappointing, given his even-money odds.
As a 6-year-old mare, Got Stormy found a way to turn back the clock and win the Fourstardave at 12-1. She paid $27 to win.
Is Got Stormy a good bet moving forward? That question is debatable. Her other 2021 races do not resemble the Fourstardave effort, which is not a great sign. She is not getting any younger. Also, there is a chance Got Stormy wakes up only at Saratoga, as she had subpar form leading into the 2020 edition of this race and still ran credibly for second.
Regardless, Got Stormy’s expected presence in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar is a welcome one. Maybe she can pull off a magical run one more time in November.
High Oak moves forward in Saratoga Special
As written before on this blog, relying on speed figures with 2-year-olds is dangerous because young horses can jump up anytime as they develop.
In this case, the previously slow High Oak made a significant step forward when he won the Saratoga Special (G2) Saturday by 4 1/4 lengths with a 106 on TimeformUS. When High Oak won his career debut at Belmont on June 26, he ran only a 73 on TimeformUS. High Oak went forward by 33 points on TimeformUS.
Meanwhile, the high-figure horse Doctor Jeff faced a more difficult pace scenario this time around by needing to duel with the morning-line second choice Gunite.
Doctor Jeff and Gunite contested the pace for the entire backside, which made those two speed horses sitting ducks when High Oak rallied.
Gunite still had something left, but High Oak drew clear in mid-stretch.
High Oak is the type of horse who could progress further. His dam Champagne Sue is a half-sister to two graded stakes-winning routers in Golden Itiz, who won the 2010 Affirmed Handicap (G3), and Sapphire N Silk, the 1999 La Troienne Stakes (G3) winner. Also, High Oak’s sire Gormley won the 2017 Santa Anita Derby (G1).
This is the kind of horse who could develop through the spring season and become a player on the Derby trail.
As for Gunite, he ran well and did improve his TimeformUS figure by seven points. Although Gunite let High Oak pass him at the top of the stretch, he might improve and become stronger as time goes on in his career. He remains a major player in the division.
Nakatomi finished credibly for third. With that said, in most cases it becomes more difficult to trust Wesley Ward-trained runners as time goes on, even though there are some exceptions.
Double Thunder closed for fourth. Because of the lively pace, though, TimeformUS gave him only an 85 speed figure, while it awarded the fifth-place Doctor Jeff a relatively high 97. Regardless, Double Thunder is still eligible to move forward for Todd Pletcher.
Even though he faded to fifth, Doctor Jeff certainly received important seasoning in the Saratoga Special. He made only the second start of his career in this race. Perhaps he is still one to watch as well.
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