What we learned: Favorites hit a wall in Iroquois, Pocahontas

For this writer, it became a great Saturday at Churchill Downs when Curly Jack took the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at 10-1 while paying $23.66 to win and $8.48 to place. Two races later, the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) blog selection Fun and Feisty (listed here) won at 6-1 while paying $14.46 to win and $6.50 to place.

The lesson from last week repeated itself. When heavy favorites stretch out for the first time, they turn into bad bets. In the case, the 3-5 Echo Again and even-money Grand Love both were vulnerable in their respective races while trying to route.

Echo Again attracted money in the Iroquois because of his 6 1/2-length maiden win at Saratoga on Aug. 20. He earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure while running only 6 1/2 furlongs. With the combination of trainer Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds, as well as Joel Rosario piloting the colt, bettors trusted him.

The public second choice, Damon’s Mound, started at 5-2 without any route experience either after breaking his maiden locally in a six-furlong July 2 sprint and winning the Saratoga Special (G2).

Most observers expected a match race.

Well, Echo Again and Damon’s Mound did hook up while approaching the far turn. The leading pair began to separate into their own world and put 3 1/2 lengths on the third-place Jace's Road at one point.

But both runners hit a wall at the top of the stretch.

To the surprise of most people, neither Echo Again and Damon’s Mound handled the route distance and started to back up to the closers. Right behind them, Hayes Strike, Jace’s Road, Confidence Game and Curly Jack on the outside moved near the leaders. Honed started to make up ground behind them too.

With a clear run in his favor, Curly Jack began to move forward and take control of the lead. Honed came forward on the outside and Jace’s Road tried to move along with them after shifting to the inside of Curly Jack. Curly Jack held the advantage and kept his opponents at bay to win by a length over Honed.

Curly Jack finished 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.62. His Beyer Speed Figure ended up as a disappointing 78, which Echo Again easily surpassed in his sprint maiden win at Saratoga. Echo Again failed to transfer his form to a route, though, at least in his first try at handling the distance.

Grand Love entered the Pocahontas off a 4 3/4-length maiden win at Saratoga in an Aug. 21 race. She earned an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for the win, which also came at the 6 1/2-furlong distance. With Asmussen and Three Chimney Farms, as well as Joel Rosario, bettors trusted the filly to take the next step and handle the 1 1/16 miles.

In the Pocahontas, Grand Love secured the lead in a comfortable manner and set fractions of 23.74 seconds and 48.07. Considering the moderate half-mile, backers could assume Grand Love had a chance of taking them all the way.

Friendlypersuasion started to apply pressure as they approached the far turn, but at first Grand Love handled it fine and continued to lead. The two of them put 3 1/2 lengths on the third-place Shoplifter as they battled.

Meanwhile, Fun and Feisty began to rally on the outside from behind quickly.

Grand Love went into the top of the stretch as the narrow leader, but Friendlypersuasion did not leave the even-money favorite alone. After passing several fillies in a short period of time, Fun and Feisty continued to sustain her rally on the outside and came within range of the leaders.

Finally, the two leaders hit the invisible wall. Fun and Feisty took the lead, while Shoplifting made progress on the inside of those three fillies to move into second.

Fun and Feisty started to pull clear in an impressive win that saw the closer sustain a long run around the far turn and into the stretch. She won by 3 1/2 lengths over Shoplifting in second, and Grand Love did enough to hold third.

Although Fun and Feisty earned only a 75 Beyer Speed Figure after completing the 1 1/16 iles in 1:45.86, she looked good visually and clearly loved the change from a six-furlong sprint to a route.

Grand Love lasted longer than Echo Again or Damon’s Mound, but she also enjoyed an easier half-mile fraction before taking pressure on the far turn.

Pedigree-wise, there was no reason for Echo Again or Grand Love to not handle the route distance. Both of them show Gun Runner as the sire with a dam line titled toward routes. But pedigree is no guarantee.

As stated last week, it is usually a bad idea to accept a short price on a horse with no successful experience at the distance. If forced to take an unproven horse, bettors might as well just search for a horse with value.

Think about this lesson in the future as the 2-year-olds stretch out.