What we learned: Epicenter shows speed figures can mislead

Epicenter’s dominating win in the Travers Stakes (G1) reinforces the idea that handicappers need to think about the circumstances of speed figures rather than assume two horses are equal in ability with the same number. Even if two horses share the same figure, one could be on another level.

Heading into the Travers, Cyberknife had attracted bettors by capturing the Haskell Stakes (G1) with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, which matched the 102 by Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Preakness and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). But the Travers finish did not result in a close race at all.

Here is a short recap of the Travers, focusing on those two runners.

Unlike in his past two starts, Epicenter came out of the gate running and initially gave the impression he might go for the front. But under Joel Rosario, Epicenter let Cyberknife and Ain’t Life Grand stay ahead of him heading into the first turn. Early Voting then came on the outside to trap Epicenter.  

Epicenter had taken the pocket position before in the Louisiana Derby. But this time, he needed to worry about Early Voting’s jockey Jose Ortiz keeping him there.

For a 1 1/4-mile race at Saratoga, Cyberknife set fast initial fractions of 23.32 and 47.63. He took the pressure from Ain’t Life Grand through those fractions, although it sometimes does not matter when a long shot presses a quality pacesetter.

After six furlongs in 1:11.43, Cyberknife still held the lead over Ain’t Life Grand, but his presser soon began to fade as they rounded the far turn. Early Voting had the opportunity to keep Epicenter trapped, but surprisingly he could not keep pace with the leader. With room opening up, Epicenter made his way through the inside and then switched outside of Cyberknife.

With Cyberknife and Epicenter about even at this point, this was the chance for Cyberknife to show beyond his Haskell Stakes speed figure that he was on the same level as Epicenter. But the truth came about quickly.

Nearing the top of the stretch, Rosario started to ask Epicenter for more, and Epicenter responded beautifully by opening up in the stretch under mild urging. Cyberknife faded out of the win picture, while Zandon and Rich Strike were both dirtied-up and pushing hard to reach that runner-up spot.

Epicenter won by a crushing 5 1/4 lengths over Cyberknife, who held second by a nose over Zandon, with another neck back to Rich Strike completing the superfecta. Early Voting folded to last and jogged to the wire.

Epicenter finished the 10 furlongs in 2:00.72, which earned him a career-high 112 Beyer Speed Figure. Now the notion that Epicenter is “not improving” can be put to rest with a Beyer 10 points higher than his previous best. But in reality, Epicenter was improving in his last few races.

In the Kentucky Derby, Epicenter had to run faster than ever because of the suicidal pace ahead of him, even with his more patient closing tactics. After positing initial pace figures of 154 and 143, Epicenter still found enough to take over the lead and hold off Zandon late as Rich Strike took advantage of the pace on the inside of the for the win.

Epicenter regressed to a 100 Beyer in the Kentucky Derby. Purely from a visual standpoint, though, it looked like he turned in the best race of his life.

Then in the Preakness, Epicenter did not break well and got herded to the left by Skippylongstocking and squeezed before the first turn. Rosario took a chance by taking Epicenter to the inside and second-to-last, but Epicenter found more traffic on the far turn before rallying for second.

Epicenter earned a 102 for the Preakness, but whatever figure he earned on Beyer, TimeformUS, BRIS or any other brand did not matter because of the trouble encountered. He clearly did not get a chance to run his best race.

In the Jim Dandy, Epicenter rated in fourth and last through the early stages as Early Voting enjoyed an easy lead through moderate fractions. With a ton of confidence, Rosario took Epicenter five wide on the far turn and Epicenter easily gobbled up the field and won the race under a hand ride.

Without trying his best, Epicenter earned another 102 in the Jim Dandy. One could conclude from his Preakness and Jim Dandy Beyer Figures that Epicenter was capable of running a significantly higher Beyer, considering the traffic problems in the Preakness and not giving a full effort in the Jim Dandy.   

Meanwhile, Cyberknife could barely defeat Howling Time in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs with only a 94 Beyer Speed Figure.

Then in the Haskell Stakes, Cyberknife did improve on his Beyer figure while overcoming traffic himself. After waiting for room on the far turn, Florent Geroux took Cyberknife to the inside and found an opening. Once clear, Cyberknife needed an all-out effort in the stretch run to beat Taiba, who has been a bit overrated since his win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). As for the third-place Haskell finisher Jack Christopher, he is a great sprinter.

Cyberknife improved to a 102 in the Haskell, but visually, it came across as his best or near his best even with the traffic on the far turn. He did not get herded and squeezed before the first turn as Epicenter did in the Preakness. Epicenter also faced the best Triple Crown horses in Early Voting and Zandon in the Jim Dandy, while Cyberknife beat the unseasoned Taiba and an excellent sprinter in Jack Christopher.  

Epicenter’s Travers win shows that two horses could hold the same speed figure with one of them clearly better after watching the replays and factoring class. Of course, that brings the question of why do handicappers need to follow speed figures at all? Well, they work as one of many tools, but in the end, no one is successful by picking only the high speed figure each time.