What we learned: Epicenter runs best in Kentucky Derby defeat

For better or worse, an old-fashioned pace collapse in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs finally happened again Saturday. This resulted in the 80-1 winner Rich Strike, which brought back memories of 50-1 Derby-winning closers Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.

Rich Strike upset the field and won fair and square, but there is an argument that Epicenter ran the best race overall from a pace standpoint. 

Here is a recap of how the suicidal pace unfolded, the different trips for the contenders, and Rich Strike’s route to posting the 80-1 upset.

When the gates opened, UAE Derby (G2) runner-up Summer Is Tomorrow came out running like a speedy sprinter after initial urging. The UAE Derby winner Crown Pride also started off quickly and took up the pressing role.

Messier and Zozos traveled behind the pair, followed by Cyberknife, and then Taiba and Charge It completed the front group. Joel Rosario on Epicenter did not bite on the fast pace and chose to settle in eighth.  

Zandon traveled on the inside in 13th through the opening quarter, while running directly behind Epicenter and close to Smile Happy to his right.

Jockey Sonny Leon on Rich Strike made a left turn out of the gate and lagged in 17th while 17 1/4 lengths off the lead in the first quarter.

Summer Is Tomorrow hit the opening quarter in a sprinter-like 21.78 seconds and half-mile in 45.78 seconds. Even after only seeing the 21.78, it was clear the front pack of horses were not going to uphold that suicidal pace and finish well. 

Nevertheless, a couple of those speed horses did make an effort to win.

As the field approached the far turn, Summer Is Tomorrow started to fold. At this point, Messier and Crown Pride moved into the lead through a torrid six furlongs in 1:10.34, with Epicenter gaining momentum behind them. While traveling wide, Zozos also kept pace with the leaders for the moment.

From the back, Rich Strike began to move into the collapsing pace. He continued to save ground under Leon rather than tip outside.

Messier and Crown Pride continued to battle until the top of the stretch, when Epicenter tipped outside both of them and secured control. Zandon then went outside Epicenter and for a moment it seemed as if either the Louisiana Derby (G2) or Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner would win.

Leon had been navigating Rich Strike through traffic like a top-level professional. On the far turn, Rich Strike waited behind Taiba and Tawny Port before switching to the left of Tawny Port and finding plenty of breathing room through the inside the early portion of the stretch. 

With more encouragement, Rich Strike went forward and shifted outside of Messier. Rich Strike then took his shot at the lead as Epicenter held off Zandon in the outside paths. Eventually, Rich Strike hit the lead toward the wire and won by 3/4 length over Epicenter, who turned in an excellent effort in defeat. Zandon ended up in third, 1 1/2 lengths behind Rich Strike and 3/4 length behind Epicenter.

Rich Strike finished the 1 1/4 miles in 2:02.61 and earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. His previous best dirt Beyer was only a 64, although this discounts the fact he competed on synthetic in his last three starts.

Yes, Rich Strike should head to Pimlico and take his shot at the Triple Crown in the Preakness. Based on his 101 Beyer Figure and the fact he did some serious running to take the lead from Epicenter in the stretch, he can win.

Overall, though, Epicenter did more work in the Kentucky Derby in terms of hard running. Even though Rosario resisted the urge to join the leaders through the opening quarter and half-mile, he still needed to run fast to maintain his early position in eighth.

When a horse runs in eighth in a 20-horse field through suicidal fractions of 21.78 and 45.36 seconds for a 10-furlong race, he still is enduring some of that early pace. The entire field had to run faster than normal because of Summer Is Tomorrow and the rest of the front speed horses, which means Epicenter was not taking it easy.

Epicenter also made an early move inside and hit the lead at the top of the stretch, while Rich Strike needed more time to navigate traffic. 

If Epicenter shows up to the Preakness, the task for Rich Strike becomes difficult. 

From a tactical standpoint, Epicenter owns more versatility since he can set the pace, press the lead or play the stalker role. Rich Strike is set as a closer. 

Rich Strike likely will settle into a similar position as Mine That Bird in 2009, the little gelding who had a wall of traffic ahead of him on the far turn in the Preakness and needed to swing out wide. By the time Mine That Bird straightened out for one last attempt at the lead, Rachel Alexandra already had built a sizable advantage. 

Mine That Bird had the misfortune of trying to run down a legend in Rachel Alexandra. Epicenter is not a legend – yet – but if Rich Strike and Epicenter run in two weeks, Rich Strike likely will face a similar misfortune of trying to catch a talented colt in Epicenter, even if he caught him at Churchill Downs. Perhaps Epicenter will build the same kind of advantage and finish stronger in the Preakness if the pace ends up more reasonable. 

Zandon would give Rich Strike another problem at Pimlico. Flavien Prat gave Zandon an excellent ride in the Kentucky Derby by saving ground early and following Epicenter’s path in front of him on the inside.

Even though Zandon came up short after tipping outside Epicenter, there is no shame in failing to run down arguably the best dirt 3-year-old in training. 

Crown Pride and Messier also deserve credit for their efforts in running in such close range of Summer Is Tomorrow through the suicidal pace and moving into the lead on the far turn before Epicenter joined and passed them. 

Even though Crown Pride faded to 13th and Messier faded to 15th, the results are misleading because they were both running at an insane clip.

As for Taiba, he “only” faded to 12th after looking tired on the far turn. Taiba became an underlay at 5-1 and took on too much, too soon by attempting the 20-horse Kentucky Derby in only third start of his career. Hopefully, the rough experience does not hurt the confidence of this unseasoned colt. 

Unfortunately, there is not enough time to give thoughts on all the Derby also-rans. Otherwise, this could easily turn into a marathon.

In short, Epicenter clearly ran the best race. Rich Strike deserves a shot to back up his winning effort in the Preakness and take a shot at the Triple Crown, but he did benefit from the pace collapse. Overall, it was a crazy and wild Kentucky Derby that resembled the version of the race before the points era, rather than the last few years.