What we learned: Echo Zulu's win feels disappointing

Echo Zulu kept her undefeated record alive in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks Saturday, but only by a slim margin over the runner-up Hidden Connection. The effort is bound to divide the racing public, as supporters will argue that Echo Zulu needed the race off the layoff and still won, while others might say she ran slow and did not return as the same filly.

Because Echo Zulu is bound to start in the Kentucky Oaks at a low price, she deserves criticism for barely holding off an oncoming challenger and finishing the race off in an average time with a disappointing speed figure.

The trip is not an excuse at first glance.

As expected, Echo Zulu went to the front, while Turnerloose and Hidden Connection followed the favorite closely to the turn on the outside. Meanwhile, Favor saved ground early, Sequist lagged in fifth and farther back Bernabreezy trailed the small field of only six 3-year-old fillies.

Echo Zulu set early fractions of 23.79 and 47.68 seconds. Without seeing any pace figures, the fractions look moderate. She also had the benefit of a small cushion separating her and Turnerloose. Ten lengths separated the field from start to back after the first quarter. By the half-mile, the field started to compress and seven lengths separated the front and back.

On the far turn, Echo Zulu still led by a small margin as Turnerloose began to fade. Hidden Connection made a threatening move on the outside, and Favor maintained position on the rail as the field hit the top of the stretch.

Under an initial hand ride from Joel Rosario, Echo Zulu could not shake off Hidden Connection. Rosario then went to the crop with Echo Zulu, and Hidden Connection still inched closer under urging from jockey Reylu Gutierrez.

But Hidden Connection ran out of time to catch the tired favorite. Echo Zulu held on for a desperate nose victory over Hidden Connection, with 2 1/2 lengths back to the even-running Favor in third.

After six furlongs in 1:11.70 and one mile in 1:36.20, Echo Zulu and Hidden Connection finished off the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:42.69. Echo Zulu (and presumably Hidden Connection) earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort. She will need to improve on that. 

Given the sheer amount of hype behind Echo Zulu, the nose margin and average Beyer Speed Figure both make the effort seem disappointing. Echo Zulu did not start as just any favorite. She started as a superstar at 1-9. At those odds, nothing short of a brilliant race is expected.

Yet Echo Zulu could barely defeat Hidden Connection. Before this race, Hidden Connection had two disappointing fourth-place finishes at 3-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and 2-1 in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2), and Echo Zulu only held on by a nose. Remember when Echo Zulu defeated Hidden Connection by 13 1/2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup?

Based on the return effort, Echo Zulu does not resemble the star version of herself from last fall. Instead, she looks like a good filly only. If the spring 2009 Rachel Alexandra could compete against the Echo Zulu who won the Fair Grounds Oaks, Rachel would win by a comfortable margin.

With all that said, Echo Zulu made only her first start of the year, and she might step forward in the Kentucky Oaks with a big effort.

She must stretch out to nine furlongs, though, and face fillies arguably better than Hidden Connection. As a bettor, it does not make sense to trust Echo Zulu at a low price, even if she could silence the concerns.

Epicenter shows new dimension in Louisiana Derby

One race after the Oaks, only minimal drama happened in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Epicenter did not secure the lead as expected. Instead, Zozos took the initiative to reach the front, and Pioneer of Medina secured second.

With the first two spots taken, Epicenter settled in third through the early stages. He accepted the pocket position as well, which is a challenge because the pocket horse ends up eating dirt. But Epicenter traveled behind Zozos and inside of Pioneer of Medina without issue.

On the far turn, Epicenter swung out under minimal urging and took command of the lead after a few pumps from Rosario.

After taking the lead, Epicenter crossed over to the rail and finished off the race in a strong manner as usual to win by 2 1/2 lengths over the highly touted Zozos.

Epicenter earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He showed he can win by setting the pace, pressing the leader from the outside or sitting in the pocket while eating dirt. Those are nice options to bring to Churchill Downs, especially this year when the pace might light up with more speed than usual.

In fairness to Zozos, he performed well too, considering he made only his third career start and graded-stakes debut. On the negative side, if the connections decide to try the Kentucky Derby with Zozos, his inexperience might hamper him in a 20-horse field.

Plenty of points races are left on the trail in the next two weeks. Nevertheless, expect Epicenter to head to Churchill Downs as one of the major contenders in the Kentucky Derby, if not the outright favorite.