What we learned: Early tactics help National Treasure

Racing fans hoping to see another Triple Crown winner will need to wait another year, as the Kentucky Derby champion Mage failed to mount a winning rally in the Preakness Stakes. Instead, the Bob Baffert-trained National Treasure picked up his second win and first graded-stakes victory.

National Treasure won the Preakness thanks to a great ride from John Velazquez and a slow pace controlled by him from the beginning. Velazquez’s decisions at the break led to National Treasure winning.

In the replay below, watch how Velazquez takes National Treasure out a few paths to the center as National Treasure outfoots the other horses and secures the lead. By moving to the middle, National Treasure took Mage’s path away heading into the first turn and made both Coffeewithchris and Blazing Sevens travel wide before moving back left. 

From there, National Treasure settled into a good rhythm on the lead.

Now to describe what led to National Treasure's slow half-mile fraction. The rider for his main pace rival just seemed hesitant to get too close.

Coffeewithchris owned the capability to pressure National Treasure more than he did. But instead of engaging with the Baffert speed horse, he shifted back out a path or two under Jaime Rodriguez and left National Treasure alone. He also acted as a buffer for National Treasure by preventing Blazing Sevens from engaging with the lone pacesetter.

Although Coffeewithchris’s tactics seemed too conservative, the connections probably wanted a chance at hitting the board and knew their horse would fold sooner if they tried to directly pressure National Treasure.

Mage settled right behind the leading trio through fractions of 23.95 and 48.92 seconds, while Red Route One saved ground on the inside. Red Route One wanted to go and briefly moved past Mage after the half-mile fraction, which felt strange to watch because Red Route One normally lagged at the back of the pack. Yet he ended up showing more speed than Mage.

At this point, National Treasure looked almost certain to win. But he faced a grueling stretch battle. After six furlongs in 1:13.49, Coffeewithchris called it a day and Blazing Sevens went to challenge National Treasure. The two leaders locked heads into the stretch run. Mage ranged up wide, but he failed to keep up with them. 

National Treasure and Blazing Sevens separated from the field and showed off their peak form in an old-fashioned battle from the start of the lane to the wire. The two of them bumped here and there while throwing it down, and eventually National Treasure gained a small advantage and prevailed by a head over a stubborn Blazing Sevens.

National Treasure completed the 1 3/16 miles in 1:55.12 while earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, and a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Oddly enough, TimeformUS did not mark any of the fractions as slow. But for the Grade 1 level at this distance, a 48.92 half-mile is most likely slow enough to significantly affect the race.  

The story has played out many times before in big races. Baffert loves to control the pace setup with a good speed horse. Although National Treasure had run as a stalker in his most recent starts, he drew the rail and Baffert added blinkers. Those factors gave obvious clues to the change in early strategy.

Some observers were left wondering why the other riders left National Treasure alone. Besides the fact that Velazquez discouraged the other horses on the first turn, the other riders had the unfortunate choice of dueling with National Treasure and losing, or holding back for a later run.

Coffeewithchris acted as an early buffer between National Treasure and Blazing Sevens. But Blazing Sevens settled close enough and managed to match strides with National Treasure on the far turn and battle. Considering Blazing Sevens' early wide position, he ran great.

If Blazing Sevens could get involved on the far turn, then arguably Mage disappointed at this point by struggling to close the gap on the leaders. 

Mage joins a list of horses who won the Kentucky Derby with a deep closing style and lost the Preakness, including Giacomo, Street Sense, Mine That Bird (although he ran into the legendary Rachel Alexandra in the 2009 Preakness) and Orb. He benefited from a generous pace at Churchill Downs and did not receive it this time. To his credit, he ran closer to the leaders early.

The next time Baffert runs a good speed horse in a race that lacks speed and does not go off as the favorite, that horse deserves a long look. In most cases, when a Baffert horse can control the race with moderate to slow fractions, the result becomes inevitable once the half-mile fraction appears.