What we learned: Early cushion helps In Italian capture Diana

After fading to third in the Just a Game Stakes (G1) last month, In Italian faced another difficult pace scenario in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. She had at least one other runner with blazing speed to worry about in the speedy Dalika, who figured to flash her early speed and join In Italian. In Italian’s stablemate Technical Analysis owned notable speed as well.

But instead of fading to third, this time In Italian led from start to finish. And she finished strong enough to win by 1 1/2 lengths.

For some leaders, the pace of the race does not matter as much as holding an uncontested lead or a lead with at least a one-length cushion. Need-the-lead types do not want to stare another horse in the eye or switch tactics and revert to a tracking position if a more aggressive speed horse tries to steal the lead out of the gate. They want to lead the race alone.

When In Italian competed in the Just a Game, she initially conceded the lead to Leggs Galore, who posted suicidal fractions of 22.25 and 45.53 seconds. In Italian joined Leggs Galore on the turn as they went six furlongs in 1:08.95 and briefly took the lead, but she had little left when Regal Glory and Wakanaka rallied past her in the early part of the stretch to finish 1-2.

In the Diana Stakes, In Italian under Joel Rosario cleared the field from the outside while causing minor crowding for Creative Flair, and then she secured the lead before the first turn. Rather than engage, Jose Ortiz on Technical Analysis took his mount back once In Italian traveled alongside them up front.

In Italian did not get to rest after clearing her stablemate because Creative Flair and Dalika both used their speed around the first turn as well.

None of the three runners had time to rest. In Italian ran a 22.45 opening quarter and 45.84 half-mile for the nine-furlong race, and she needed to run that fast to maintain a 1 1/2-length cushion on Creative Flair and Dalika throughout those first two quarters. Even though Ortiz took Technical Analysis back, she also had to run hard through those fast fractions from about four lengths behind the free-running In Italian.

The important part is the 1 1/2-length cushion. In Italian needed to run fast to secure the lead and maintain that cushion. But the point is that running freely in front this time (instead of chasing Leggs Galore) helped In Italian enough from a mental standpoint that she kept going in the stretch.

In Italian won by 1 1/2 lengths over Technical Analysis. Bleecker Street and Rougir gradually came along for third and fourth. Dalika faded to fifth. Creative Flair folded badly to last, 36 lengths behind In Italian.

With the stretch fades of Dalika and Creative Flair in mind, it is almost certain that In Italian set a super-fast pace through the early stages. It is impressive that In Italian ran hard enough early to keep the uncontested lead and then held off the the stalker and closers late. 

But given the same fractions, would In Italian have won if Creative Flair or Dalika settled on In Italian’s flank in the pressing position rather than chasing from one or two lengths behind? That scenario would have made it more difficult. For many need-the-lead types, the feeling of another horse breathing nearby is stressful enough to take away their final punch. 

When the pacesetter runs freely without any other horses nearby, the breathing room helps make the lead more comfortable, even with a faster pace.  

Of course, the above logic works only to an extent. For example, a pacesetter cannot open in 21 and 44 in a nine-furlong race and expect to fight off any closers late, even if that horse holds a cushion of about one or two lengths early. At some point, there is a penalty for running too fast.

In addition, pacesetters usually succumb to higher-classed rivals traveling within range of the front, even if there is an uncontested lead and reasonable fractions. One example is the front-running Halladay, who won the 2020 Fourstardave Handicap (G1) on this course after setting the pace through moderate fractions. In his next start, Halladay faded to sixth in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile after initially setting the pace again with a one-length cushion through fast fractions.

Last year, Blowout won races such as First Lady Stakes (G1) and Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) with an uncontested lead in both races. She led the Distaff Turf Mile by an amazing eight lengths at the half-mile point before holding on by only half a length over Regal Glory in the stretch. When Blowout tried the Breeders' Cup Mile, she failed to secure the lead and tracked the leader instead before fading to a dismal 11th.  

Perhaps In Italian can point toward the Breeders’ Cup Mile this year and make amends for her stablemate Blowout’s fade last November. But in her races leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, pay close attention to whether In Italian faces another Leggs Galore intent on stealing the lead from her, or whether she can secure the lead with a cushion comfortably.