What we learned: Despite margin, Santa Barbara dominates

Completing a successful European invasion, Santa Barbara and Bolshoi Ballet both won their races Saturday for trainer Aidan O’Brien in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Belmont Derby (G1). But the manner in which Santa Barbara took the Oaks and the impression she left are both in contrast to how her stablemate Bolshoi Ballet won the Derby.

Santa Barbara won the Belmont Oaks by only half a length. But it is not a stretch to call the effort a dominating performance, given the early pace and trip.

Through an opening quarter in 24.71 and half-mile 51.31 led by Con Lima, Santa Barbara went along with the field in mid-pack under a tight hold. With no room to move in any direction, jockey Ryan Moore had no option other than to wait and see.

Only five lengths separated the entire eight-horse field, which is typically the sign of a slow pace. In a quick pace situation, horses typically fracture and spread apart.

In other words, the pacesetting Con Lima held a clear advantage.

As a credit to Santa Barbara, she was patient in traffic.

On the far turn, Gam’s Mission moved forward on the outside before Santa Barbara could tip out. At this point, Santa Barbara bettors had every reason to sweat with no obvious path. The American jockeys blocked the favorite on all sides, forcing her to wait around the turn.

Turning into the top of the stretch, Santa Barbara finally had room to tip out and move through the gap between the four fillies in front of her and Gam’s Mission on the outside. But Moore initially did not try to shift Santa Barbara to the new opening.

A few moments later, though, Santa Barbara came out to the right. The opening became smaller with Gam’s Mission moving back into the picture. But Santa Barbara found a workable path and shot like an arrow to the front with plenty of power.

Santa Barbara beat Con Lima by only half a length at the end. Just from a visual standpoint, Santa Barbara felt three or four lengths better than that field.

Now to discuss Bolshoi Ballet’s win in the Belmont Derby.

Bolshoi Ballet ran in almost as the same mid-pack position as Santa Barbara early. Initially, he was in seventh at the end of mid-pack, but only four lengths off the lead. He crept closer at the half-mile point, as Hard Love led the field through fractions of 24.61 and 51.34.  

In comparison to Santa Barbara, the difference in the trip is that Bolshoi Ballet had no problem tipping out. On the turn, he easily found a path outside of Safe Conduct and Du Jour to set up his final move.

At the top of the stretch, Bolshoi Ballet already had perfect aim.

He only needed to mow down Cellist, Hard Love and Du Jour.

Despite enjoying a clear path, Moore had to ask Bolshoi Ballet a couple of times to move forward with the right-handed crop. Unlike Santa Barbara, he gradually made his way forward and got the job done by 1 1/4 lengths over a closing Tokyo Gold in second. Cellist held third.

In terms of time, Santa Barbara beat Bolshoi Ballet by running the 1 1/4 miles in the Oaks in 2:03:76. Despite the better trip, Bolshoi Ballet’s final time was 2:04.42.

From a visual standpoint, Bolshoi Ballet’s stretch move felt more workman-like in comparison to Santa Barbara’s last-minute dash toward the lead. Although Bolshoi Ballet won, he gave the impression of a good t-year-old turf runner rather than an international star.

In Bolshoi Ballet’s big six-length win on May 9, maybe he beat a mostly weak field. Look at the record of the runner-up Lough Derg since then, with three off-the-board finishes since finishing second to Bolshoi Ballet in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.

Bolshoi Ballet also beat Mac Swiney, the eventual Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) winner, in that same race. Perhaps Mac Swiney did not fire his best in the May 9 Derby Trial.

Going back to the trip comparison between the two European winners, Santa Barbara easily left a better impression in the Belmont Oaks than Bolshoi Ballet did in the Derby. 

Situations will occur where a turf horse endures Santa Barbara’s early trip and never gets through or finds room too late to win. Those kinds of horses might offer value in the future. The process of finding value in turf racing takes longer because it requires the viewer to watch a ton of replays and not rely as much on numbers and figures.

For those who watch European racing on a regular basis, keep an eye on Santa Barbara. She looks like a top filly anywhere in the world.