What we learned: Bettors fall into trap in Starlet Stakes

When betting opened for the Grade 2 Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos, the public made the inexperienced Grazia the favorite despite red flags. The daughter of Uncle Mo trained by Bob Baffert went into the route stakes without any route or stakes experience, and she did not own a dominant figure either.

Grazia had given a nice visual impression in her winning career debut in a sprint, but no reason existed to make the filly a lower choice than her more accomplished stablemate Nothing Like You, who had a route and stakes win.

After the dust settled, Nothing Like You continued to look like a strong dirt router with a future on the Oaks trail, and Grazia acted more like a sprinter.

In fairness to Grazia, she went four wide on the first turn as Nothing Like You had the benefit of saving ground and traveling in the two path. From there, Grazia continued to run wide under Flavien Prat, while Nothing Like You led the field with a slight cushion through 23.24 and 47.40 fractions.

When good Baffert speed horses control the lead through moderate fractions, they tend to finish exceptionally strong, and Nothing Like You did not disappoint in that regard. With Chatalas struggling to keep up in second, Nothing Like You began to pick up the pace on the far turn and open up.

Meanwhile, Grazia also had trouble keeping pace on the outside. Despite Prat’s best efforts, she started to lose ground and fade in the stretch.

Nothing Like You responded to urging under Juan Hernandez and kept building on her lead over Chatalas and Great Forty Eight. As that happened, Flynn’s Chance also came with a steady move on the outside.

Nothing Like You led by four lengths over Chatalas through six furlongs in 1:12.20. She then finished off the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:44.78 with a 5 1/4-length margin as Great Forty Eight finished in second.

Great Forty Eight came out in mid-stretch and interfered with Chatalas. As a result of the incident, the stewards took Great Forty Eight down and moved Flynn’s Chance from third to second, and Chatalas went from fourth to third.

Grazia completely folded to sixth and finished 28 1/4 lengths behind Nothing Like You. At this point in her career, both the route distance and Grade 2 level seemed too challenging for the inexperienced filly.  

In other words, Nothing Like You rewarded bettors who favored proven stakes and route experience and better speed figures. Grazia had only a visually impressive maiden win at a sprint distance with a lower speed figure, and bettors who backed her paid the price once she folded late.

Once in a while, talented maiden winners such as Grazia will overcome the inexperience and win on the class or distance jump. But the main point is that Grazia offered a bad deal to players as the favorite, and her odds continued to stay low through post time when she started at 9-5. 

On paper, Nothing Like You already beat Grazia on route and stakes experience, and she owned better speed figures on both Daily Racing Form and TimeformUS. Yt the public let her go at a slightly higher 2-1 at post time.

In any case, Nothing Like You does not give the impression of a standout 2-year-old filly, but she certainly loves two-turn routes. Besides her 5 1/4-length win in the Starlet, Nothing Like You also broke her maiden by 6 1/2 lengths in a one-mile route at Santa Anita. Her other races came in sprints, and none of them match her route performances.

The blog choice, Nothing Like You paid $6.20 to win. The suggested exacta wheel of Nothing Like You over Flynn's Chance and Great Forty Eight also hit, with the Nothing Like You over Flynn's Chance exacta paying $29.60 for every $1. 

Nothing Like You has time to develop and improve on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) trail. As long as she avoids any monsters, she will contend in most races.

Nothing is proven until it happens. With inexperienced horses such as Grazia who do not own experience at the race conditions, bettors should at least demand some kind of value on odds before they spend their money. Keep Grazia's loss in mind when similar situations pop up.