What we learned: Authentic's stamina in question after Haskell

Authentic’s two races at nine furlongs leave plenty of questions to Derby handicappers. Either this colt is learning and requires the benefit of the doubt, or the lack of final punch in the stretch run hints at limitations.

Last month, Authentic lost the Santa Anita Derby (G1) to Honor A. P. after giving only a mild response late. A poor start and wide trip gave him legitimate excuses, though. He also did not secure the lead early.

Yesterday, Authentic won the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth. But he barely held off Ny Traffic in a disappointing effort, depending on how the stretch run is viewed. And he cannot blame a bad start this time.  

Before the latter part, Authentic received his preferred trip. He secured the lead, as Ny Traffic stayed close to him around the first turn.

Jesus’ Team cut the corner in third. Despite possessing speed, Lebda rated in fourth, just ahead of Ancient Warrior and Dr Post on the inside.

Authentic took the field through a 23.60 opening quarter and 47.52 half-mile. Ny Traffic stuck to his tail, and the two of them opened up on the field on the far turn. Yet, from a visual standpoint, Authentic held the advantage because Mike Smith did not visibly ask him yet. In contrast, Paco Lopez gave Ny Traffic heavy urging with the stick to keep up.

At the top of the stretch, Authentic created some separation from Ny Traffic and the final result looked inevitable at this point. Ny Traffic tried his best, but he suddenly appeared closer to Dr Post than to Authentic.

But late in the stretch, Authentic began to stall as Smith continued to handride him. As that happened, Ny Traffic responded again under a relentless ride under Lopez. When Ny Traffic rerallied toward the wire, Smith finally asked Authentic a few times and he held on by a nose.

What happened? Authentic went from a stone cold lock at the top of the stretch to a desperate winner in the last few strides as Ny Traffic rallied.

There are three possible reasons for Authentic’s near loss.

Perhaps Smith became too confident. With Ny Traffic seemingly put away in the early stretch, he thought he could handride Authentic.

After the race, Smith also explained that Authentic became distracted by shadows. This is a plausible excuse, considering Authentic’s erratic stretch run antics in the Sham Stakes (G3) in January. Perhaps Authentic gets bored with the lead and does not concentrate well.

It is also possible Authentic is not meant for longer routes. When a horse is successful at shorter distances but stalls late when stretching out, that is not a promising sign. His pedigree says no to longer routes as well. After all, this is a son of Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare. Without digging deeper, those two names are not long-winded sires.

The feeling here is that Authentic is a combination of distance-limited and green. Smith handriding him in the stretch until Ny Traffic rallied is not a huge deal, as some horses run at full speed without urging.

But is it a great idea to go to the Kentucky Derby with a green horse that has a questionable pedigree and stalls late in the stretch?

Tonalist’s Shape exposed as average in CCAO loss

Tonalist’s Shape disappointed in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga, where she entered as an underwhelming favorite.

In contrast, a new name emerged in Paris Lights, who won by a head over Crystal Ball in the 1 1/8-mile route. Behind them, Antoinette crossed the wire third for the fourth straight time.

What happened to Tonalist’s Shape?

On the rail, she broke well enough under Irad Ortiz Jr. But she became rank around the turn as Ortiz tried to rate her behind Crystal Ball and Paris Lights.

Perhaps Ortiz made a mistake, as Crystal Ball took the field through a mild 24.43 opening quarter and a 47.82 half-mile with Paris Lights on her.

On the far turn, Crystal Ball and Paris Lights crept away. Antoinette kept within range, but Tonalist’s Shape did not respond and lost ground.

In midstretch, Crystal Ball and Paris Lights battled to the wire as Tonalist’s Shape continued to struggle in fourth. She traveled only in front of Velvet Crush in fifth, who had missed the break completely.

By the end, Tonalist’s Shape finished 11 3/4 lengths behind.

It is possible the longer distance affected Tonalist’s Shape. But what race in her record signaled a top Grade 1-level filly? She had run nothing but average figures on TimeformUS, with the exception of the 110 in the Davona Dale Stakes (G2). Her second best TimeformUS figure of 104 came in the ungraded Hollywood Wildcat Stakes.

In Tonalist’s Shape’s five other starts, she failed to break 100 in TimeformUS. Remember, a 100 on TimeformUS is approximately an 80 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, which is low for this level of racing.  

Tonalist’s Shape failed to even threaten the leaders on the turn or in the stretch. Most distance-limited horses with talent give at least a mild run.

A cutback will benefit Tonalist’s Shape, but she is not super talented either. If she marches on towards the Kentucky Oaks, ignore her.  

As for Paris Lights and Crystal Ball, both of them ran well. But with Swiss Skydiver and the controversial Gamine absent, neither of them beat any monsters. Both fillies need to improve for the Oaks.

Also, Velvet Crush needs to work on breaking better. Given the impossible early position, she probably deserves another shot.