What we learned: It's hard to trust Arctic Arrogance after Jerome

For bettors, Arctic Arrogance has been turning into a frustrating horse after losing the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct and the Remsen Stakes (G2) last month on the same course. Arctic Arrogance ran another solid race in the Jerome by finishing second and turning in a good final time with another respectable figure, but he cannot seem to get the job done late.

Arctic Arrogance did face adversity on paper in terms of early running position. Because Arctic Arrogance seemed like a horse who wanted the lead, the question he faced was how he would adapt his front-running style in the Jerome if Andiamo A Firenze went to the lead. But it turns out he needed to deal with Lugan Knight up front instead.

When the gates opened, Andiamo A Firenze seemed like he would go to the lead as expected, but Ken Carmouche surprisingly tugged him back and took away his main weapon of speed. Lugan Knight, who did not break sharply, surprisingly found himself passing Andiamo A Firenze and setting the pace.

Arctic Arrogance sat right off Lugan Knight. Both riders seemed scared to really turn on the engines, and the pace subsequently became moderate.

Even without looking at the fractions, viewers could guess a moderate to slow pace by looking at how bunched up the field became in the initial stages. Visually, the pace scenario almost resembled how turf races set up with little room in between horses in the first group and then a small gap to Neural Network in last.

For those who prefer fractions, Lugan Knight opened in 23.41 seconds and hit the half-mile in 47.70. Arctic Arrogance never left his side, but he did not push very hard until the far turn when both horses finally were allowed to go.

Once they started to round the turn, Lugan Knight and Arctic Arrogance turned the close race into a match race and both of them opened up on the field by a significant margin heading into the top of the stretch.

Lugan Knight would not surrender. No matter how aggressively jockey Jose Lezcano asked Arctic Arrogance, he could not pass Lugan Knight, who maintained a slim advantage through the entire stretch. Lugan Knight eventually prevailed by half a length to score his first stakes win.

As for the final time, Lugan Knight completed the one mile in 1:37.77, which earned him an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. Time will tell whether this son of Goldencents out of a Speightstown mare can route at longer distances.

Arctic Arrogance still ran a fast race, as evidenced by the fact he put seven lengths on the third-place General Banker. But his lack of ability to pass horses in the stretch remains a concern. Arctic Arrogance lost after sitting off the leader throughout a controlled pace. One could argue that if Arctic Arrogance had the inside lead and Lugan Knight pressed on the outside, the outcome might be different.

Then again, Arctic Arrogance also lost to Dubyuhnell after setting the pace in the Remsen last month. When locked into a one-on-one battle in the stretch, Arctic Arrogance cannot seem to put the other horse away and get the win.

Also, Arctic Arrogance lost the Remsen at 2-1, and he lost the Jerome as the 6-5 favorite, which makes him a money burner in terms of win money.

For handicappers, this is a frustrating horse because Arctic Arrogance will show up to his next prep race with two good efforts where he still lost and ran competitive speed figures. Chasing horses who consistently lose while running well is not profitable. Maybe the best advice is to respect Arctic Arrogance while finding another horse either to win or use alongside him.

Given his pedigree, Lugan Knight deserves skepticism if his next prep race is nine furlongs. But if he goes to a different track and runs in a 1 1/16-mile prep race instead, Lugan Knight should still handle that type of route. But the waters get deeper for him. 

Also watch for General Banker and Neural Network, the third- and fourth-place finishers, if they land in a race with some real pace. Once Carmouche rated Andiamo A Firenze after breaking well, the chances of both closing runners were hurt. Both horses could provide value next time.