What makes the Japan dirt runners successful lately?

Without question, the performance level of Japan-based dirt runners has shifted recently in major dirt races run in the Middle East after they won the Saudi Cup (G1), UAE Derby (G2) and Dubai World Cup (G1).

Now, Derma Sotogake and Continuar, along with Mandarin Hero if he can break into the top 20 in points, hope to carry that success to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs next month.

One change in Japan-based runners is the improved speed shown in their horses. The shift started last year when Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride dueled each other in the Kentucky Derby, but that was the wrong year for using early speed as the pace collapsed. 

From races this year, look at how the Saudi Cup and UAE Derby victors used their early speed to win.   

In the Saudi Cup, the Japan-based speed horse Panthalassa needed to face a major U.S. contender in Country Grammer, who came from the Bob Baffert barn. Although still consistent, Country Grammer had been slowing down a bit toward the end of 2022 in the American campaign. Early in 2022 though, he had earned a runner-up finish in the Saudi Cup and captured the Dubai World Cup a month later for his career highlight.  

Even though Baffert runners are known for controlling big races with speed, Country Grammer brought more of stalking style to the race. Panthalassa had set the pace in his recent races, but those starts came on turf and sometimes it is harder to secure the lead on dirt.  

The transfer to dirt did not seem to both Panthalassa, as he still went to the front easily enough and set the pace with a comfortable rhythm. 

Panthalassa ended up holding off multiple stretch challengers and lasted long enough before a late move from Country Grammer almost caught him.  

In other words, the Japan horse used his speed to take control of the race and hold off the closing Baffert favorite. Only a few years ago, that would sound like a bizarre description of a major dirt race.

One month later in the UAE Derby at Meydan, Derma Sotogake took a shot after finishing a closing third in the Saudi Derby behind Commissioner King and Havnameltdown. Baffert’s only entry, Worcester, was a maiden best described as a stalking type who lacked experience.

Surprisingly, Derma Sotogake took the initiative and went straight to the front. This time, Derma Sotogake did not need to face Havnameltdown or Commissioner King, the two speed horses who battled down the stretch in the Saudi Derby. The lack of their presence helped him lead. 

After a comfortable time setting the pace in front, Derma Sotogake went into the stretch under a hand ride. He then started to open up on his fellow Japan-based runner Dura Erede in second and won by an impressive 5 1/2 lengths over him with only mild urging at best. 

The Japan-based runners took the top four positions in the UAE Derby.

Derma Sotogake ran as a mid-pack closer in his two races before the UAE Derby, including when he won the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun in December. Maybe Derma Sotogake took the lead by default without a proper American speed horse to challenge him up front. Another explanation for his improved early foot is that the connections were preparing him to show speed in case they made the Kentucky Derby.  

This year, the speed will come in handy as the Derby probables list lacks a true pacesetter. There are some probable runners who can set the pace if necessary, such as Verifying, Kingsbarns and Confidence Game, but those all are runners who can sit off the leader or stalk if necessary.

Given his success in the UAE Derby as a pacesetter, expect Derma Sotogake to roll the dice on or near the lead in the Kentucky Derby. If Derma Sotogake can pull off the win, fewer observers will see it as a surprise this time after the Japanese dominated in the Middle East.