Which of Baffert's 3 top Derby-trail colts is the best?

With three talented 2-year-olds in Nysos, Muth and Coach Prime in his stable, trainer Bob Baffert holds a strong trio of runners meant for the Kentucky Derby trail. Muth already has begun his long journey, and Nysos and Coach Prime likely will enter official Derby points races soon.

In terms of pedigree potential for handling longer routes, they all show route blood on both sides of their families. With that said, Nysos looks like the most exciting 2-year-old of the trio based on his speed figures and the visuals of his races, and the other two fall just short of him.

When Nysos broke his maiden by an impressive 10 1/2 lengths on Oct. 21 at Santa Anita Park, TimeformUS gave him a lofty 119 figure. 

Nysos then ran nearly the same figure on the stretchout to seven furlongs at Del Mar in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes when he won by 8 3/4 lengths with a 118 on TimeformUS. Although Nysos beat only three other horses, including one stablemate, those were decent opponents. 

The Bob Hope runner-up Stronghold had broken his maiden at Churchill Downs with a 103, while the third-place Tejon Pass broke his maiden at Santa Anita with a 99, which are solid numbers in their early careers.

Given the good quality of his Bob Hope competition, Nysos most likely ran as fast as the figure indicates, which makes him close to a monster.

In terms of pedigree, Nysos's sire, former Derby winner Nyquist, and his dam line tracing back to 2001 Breeders’ Cup Distaff champion Unbridled Elaine hint that he will thrive in two-turn routes. 

Muth has graded-stakes experience along with high speed figures and a solid route pedigree.

In early October, Muth won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita with a 114 on TimeformUS. One month later, Muth ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and improved his TimeformUS figure to a 116 while losing ground to the impressive winner Fierceness.

Even though Muth improved his number, it still came up a few points short of both of Nysos’ TimeformUS figures. Plus, from a visual standpoint, Muth does not seem as exciting as Nysos at the moment.  

Muth does deserve credit for running those numbers at the highest level, considering that Nysos won only a maiden race and a Grade 3 race.

In terms of pedigree, Muth has a clear route sire on top with Good Magic. On the bottom, the immediate family also indicates stamina with Uncle Mo as the damsire. Uncle Mo also sired Nyquist. 

As another interesting note found in his female family, Muth’s third dam Frayne is a full sister to Wandering Star, a turf router who won the 1996 E.P. Taylor Stakes (G2) at Woodbine.

Similar to Nysos, Muth sports a pedigree with route influences on the top and bottom, but Nysos holds the slight edge with his speed figures and overall excitement as a 2-for-2 colt with dominating wins.

For now, Coach Prime falls behind Nysos and Muth in the speed-figure category. But he broke his maiden in a somewhat impressive manner after chasing a fast pace, and he also displays a solid pedigree.

In his second start, Coach Prime broke his maiden on Nov. 10 at Del Mar by 7 1/4 lengths after sitting behind the leaders through the hot pace. Despite the margin and impressive visual, TimeformUS gave Coach Prime only a 104 after he completed the one mile in 1:37.18.

Given the fast pace with fractions of 21.44 and 44.94 seconds for the first two quarters, the entire field was tired by the stretch drive, including Coach Prime, who still opened up on the rest because of his natural talent.

But the pace excuse does not remove the fact that Coach Prime remains 10 to 15 points behind Nysos and Muth when using TimeformUS figures.

As a son of Quality Road out of the Street Sense mare Act Now, Coach Prime’s pedigree leans toward handling longer routes. His second dam Always Trouble is a half-sister to Fed Biz, who won $770k in his career and ran his best races at distances up to 1 1/16 miles.

In his next start, Coach Prime will need to move forward. He belongs in top stakes races on the trail, but he still deserves the third spot here. 

All three of these 2-year-olds also need to blossom at the right time for another trainer in April and May, as Baffert is ineligible to earn Derby points. Of the three Baffert colts described above though, Nysos possesses the most raw talent and could end up becoming the monster.