Belmont Stakes 2021: 1 long shot you need to consider
When Known Agenda won the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream in late March, he gave the impression of a horse that might enjoy the slower grind of the Belmont Stakes more than the chaotic 20-horse Kentucky Derby run at a typically fast pace.
The time has come to test the theory after Known Agenda’s ninth-place Derby finish nearly five weeks ago. After skipping the Preakness Stakes, Known Agenda enters the 1 ½-mile Belmont on Saturday a rested horse and faces an average-sized field.
This Todd Pletcher-trained son of Curlin hits all the checkmarks of a quality horse worth betting on in a marathon.
To start off with his class credentials, Known Agenda is the Florida Derby winner, making him a Grade 1 winner. After stalking the pace, he made his move on the turn and won by 2 ¾ lengths over Soup and Sandwich, with the favorite Greatest Honour in third.
Soup and Sandwich admittedly did not perform well in the Kentucky Derby. He tried to chase the pace set by Medina Spirit and ended up finishing 19th and last. However, it is arguable that he faced a difficult task in only his fourth start and needed more time to develop.
As for Greatest Honour, he went on the shelf following his third-place finish.
Right now, there is not enough evidence to call the Florida Derby a weak field. Known Agenda likely beat some decent horses in there.
The most important factor on Known Agenda’s side is that he most likely wants the 1 ½-mile distance. This opinions comes from a pedigree, paper and visual standpoint.
Known Agenda’s sire Curlin is an obvious stamina influence. On the bottom side, Known Agenda sports a European pedigree that is more difficult to read, but it seems to show versatility and stamina. For what it is worth, the second dam Aymara broke her maiden in a 1 ½-mile route at Musselburgh in September 2000.
Also, note the distance of all three of Known Agenda’s wins. He has only won at nine furlongs, which is a great sign he wants more distance. Toss out the off-the-board Kentucky Derby effort at 1 ¼ miles, as that acts as on outlier for many horses. If Known Agenda needs a minimum of nine furlongs to even win a race, then 12 furlongs is promising.
Visually, Known Agenda never looks tired.
He only ran ninth in the Kentucky Derby because of the rail. He did not own the right kind of speed to clear 18 other horses and became shuffled back into the first turn, forcing him to settle into 16th early.
Known Agenda resembles a sitting duck as the rest of the field shifts left.
Yet, Known Agenda improved as the race kept going.
Known Agenda made up some ground and eventually closed well, finding his way into ninth.
In his Florida Derby victory, Known Agenda did not blow out the field by many lengths. As strange as this sounds, that is a good sign. After stalking on the inside, he grinded his way to the front on the far turn, before taking over and pulling clear late by a modest 2 ¾ lengths.
Horses only capable of a quick move tend to flatten out when running longer routes. Although Known Agenda won by 11 lengths in a Feb. 26 optional claiming race, he also won against a significantly weaker field than the Florida Derby. Also, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rode him aggressively in the stretch even when far ahead.
This week, expect Known Agenda to settle in a relaxed fashion around fourth or fifth, and then grind his way towards the lead by the top of the stretch and face any late oncoming challengers.
Trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to win the Belmont, as evidenced by Tapwrit in 2017, Palace Malice in 2013 and Rags to Riches in 2007. In two of those cases, the horse ran off the board in the Kentucky Derby first. In Rags to Riches’ case, she took the Kentucky Oaks before the connections decided to give the Belmont a shot.
The post position is not supposed to matter this time, especially without a large field trying to cave in on Known Agenda heading into the first turn. If Known Agenda draws the rail, he will not get shuffled back by double-digit lengths.
For all those reasons, Known Agenda is the choice. As long as he stays at 9/2 or higher, Known Agenda offers fair value. At 8-1, Known Agenda becomes a value.
Barring any significant traffic problems, anything less than a Top 3 finish will come as a disappointment.