What is Cody’s Wish’s ideal trip in Whitney Stakes?

Almost every horse in the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes at Saratoga has proven themselves in a nine-furlong or longer stakes race. The one exception is the heavy favorite Cody’s Wish, who brings an amazing six-race win streak into the race but lacks a longer route win. 

Based on his pedigree, Cody’s Wish is supposed to handle the nine-furlong Whitney distance on Saturday. But he does need to show more patience than in his previous try at nine furlongs, which came as an inexperienced 3-year-old maiden in July 2021 on this course.

Cody’s Wish has Curlin as his sire and Tapit as the damsire. Both of them are well-known stamina influences in the breeding world, especially with Tapit siring an incredible four Belmont Stakes winners.

His dam Dance Card broke her maiden routing and won the nine-furlong 2012 Gazelle Stakes (G1) to cap off a great season with four route wins.

But when Cody’s Wish made his nine-furlong debut on this course two years ago, he broke slowly and ended up rank early while tugging Joel Rosario to the front. From there, he gave the leader Pipeline heavy inside pressure while burning himself out from the premature move. 

Pipeline withstood the pressure and put away Cody’s Wish at the top of the stretch, and then Vindictive ran by both of them to pick up the pace-aided win.

This time around, Cody’s Wish heads into his nine-furlong Whitney Stakes attempt as a seasoned horse with a powerful kick in one-mile races. At this point in his career, Cody’s Wish knows his job and likely can handle rating under his regular jockey Junior Alvarado in a nine-furlong stakes race.

If Cody’s Wish could sit either in a mid-pack or a stalker position early and travel in a steady manner without fighting Alvarado, he probably will win. The word “probably” is used because he does face a field of stakes winners at nine furlongs or longer, and maybe one of them wants the distance more. 

For example, Zandon took the nine-furlong Blue Grass Stakes (G1) last year in a strong manner and ran his career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure when second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) later on. After three consecutive losses in one-turn miles recently, the steady grinding Zandon is back to his best distance in this nine-furlong race.

White Abarrio has a questionable pedigree for longer routes, but he did capture the Florida Derby (G1) last year and finish second in the Ohio Derby (G3). He might prefer shorter distances. Given his previous Grade 1 victory though at nine furlongs, he can handle nine furlongs with a good trip.  

Charge It lacks a nine-furlong stakes win. But his form shows he can handle the distance, as he ran second to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby last year and recently won the 10-furlong Suburban Stakes (G2) by 4 3/4 lengths at Belmont Park last month. He also displays a top and bottom route pedigree with Tapit as his sire and Take Charge Lady, the dam of Take Charge Indy and Will Take Charge, as his second dam.

Last Samurai won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) last year and missed winning by only a head this year while encountering trouble on the rail.

Even Giant Game just won the nine-furlong Cornhusker Handicap (G3) at Prairie Meadows over a proven stakes horse in Skippylongstocking.

Cody’s Wish remains the odd man out in terms of wins in stakes at nine furlongs or longer. Given his better experience and maturity as an older racehorse now, it feels like he should handle the extra distance.

From a handicapping and betting standpoint, the decision on whether to trust Cody’s Wish at a low price without the nine-furlong win on record should end up as a hard one to make. At the end of the day, he still needs to prove himself in this spot and will offer little value.