Cheat sheet for spotting true 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders

With longer Kentucky Derby 2019 prep races coming soon, it is time to discuss the qualities found in a serious contender heading toward the first Saturday in May. To newcomers, it might feel like a daunting task to keep up with a plethora of names popping up each week, but the truth is, most horses are not even worth following if using the right checkpoints to evaluate them. 

In other cases, an emerging 3-year-old can stick out like a bright star in a dark cave. 

As early as March of last year, I suggested Justify could win the Triple Crown before he competed in a stakes race. He showed successful two-turn route experience and abnormally high speed figures, making him the No. 1 Derby contender. 

A few months later, Justify backed up the high praise and won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes in succession.

In some years, it is not as simple as picking the high speed figure horse, as not every crop offers an exceptional runner with Justify-like numbers. His successful example only shows how the public, in my opinion, overthinks the race and overrates other factors.

To help, down below is a Derby contender cheat sheet. The first three qualities are what every serious Derby horse needs, while the last three are overrated factors.

What to look for in a contender

1. High two-turn speed figures

While the first point sounds almost too obvious, speed figures become a lost factor at times on the Derby trail. Justify ran a massive 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his career debut at Santa Anita last February and backed it up with a 125 one month later in a two-turn optional claimer at one mile. He quickly stood out on speed figures. 

In Justify's third start, the eventual Triple Crown winner displayed no signs of regression as he took the Santa Anita Derby (G1) with a 132, giving him a second route win before Churchill Downs. His route numbers looked above and beyond the others.

To show how special the 131 is, the current hot 3-year-old Hidden Scroll “only” ran a 119 in his maiden breaker, yet shows the fastest number in this crop right now.

For those who prefer Beyer Figures, Hidden Scroll earned a 104 last weekend, seven points higher than Game Winner’s 97 in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last fall and eight points higher than Improbable’s 96 in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1).

The Hard Spun colt only needs to back up the number on fast dirt in a two-turn route, and he will become the division leader on nearly all Derby lists out there.

Game Winner and Improbable earned their numbers in two-turn routes, which keeps them ahead of Hidden Scroll for now. Maximus Mischief also deserves some credit for earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in the two-turn nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2).

2. Versatility

Even though Justify led all the way in his career debut, he settled off the leaders in his second start before blowing them away again, proving himself versatile.

In contrast, the speed-crazy Promises Fulfilled needed to lead in his prep races. The slow pace in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) masked his one-dimensional style, but he became exposed in the Florida Derby (G1) when caught in an epic speed duel.

Understandably, Promises Fulfilled’s connections pressed on and took a shot at the Kentucky Derby, but he set insane fractions on the lead and faded sharply to 15th.

Need-the-lead types can win the Kentucky Derby occasionally, as the filly Winning Colors did in 1988 and War Emblem in 2002. However, displaying some ability to rate is a lot better, as the Derby pace is moderately fast to suicidal in most years.

Hidden Scroll won his maiden race in wire-to-wire fashion on a speed-biased Gulfstream track, which means he still needs to sit off horses in his prep races.

Game Winner and Improbable both showed their ability to rate already, as did recent Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner War of Will, who was a former pacesetter on turf.

Maximus Mischief settled off the flank of a massive longshot named Gladiator King in the Remsen, before moving ahead early and putting away the field on the turn. If he meets a speed horse with actual substance in the future, the task may become harder.

3. Fluid running motion

This last positive quality is more difficult to spot, especially for a pace and speed figure handicapper such as myself. But with some careful viewing, even a paper handicapper can spot a fluid runner by paying attention to how the horse moves.

Obviously, Justify displayed a smooth running motion in his three races prior to the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah also showed the same fluid motion every time.

To be honest, it is a motion easier to spot than describe. The horse will look like an efficient machine with the same consistent action each time.  

If still confused, at least pay attention to how straight the horse runs in the stretch, and whether or not there is a proper lead switch. Running fluidly involves those two factors.

In the Santa Anita Derby, Justify took half a second too slow to switch leads in the stretch, but it was a minor mistake and he still ran fairly straight in the lane.  

As for Magnum Moon, he failed to run in a straight line in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last year. While he won by a few lengths, he lost points for appearing wobbly late.

Strike Power, who hooked up with Promises Fulfilled in the epic Florida Derby speed duel, always failed to switch leads in the stretch. He never made the Kentucky Derby.

Switching leads is important because it allows the horse to gain a second wind, although some horses get away with not switching and finish well in the preps, which run at less than 1 1/4 miles.

For an exaggerated example of a horse who did not switch leads, study the 2010 Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box. He ran well throughout the spring, despite the flaw.

For the most part, though, horses who switch leads run better long.

Overrated factors

1. Dosage

Using Dosage is an antiquated way of analyzing pedigree. For one, the formula depends heavily on “chef-de-race” sires, and some important sires are not included.

The final number fails to take into account the dam’s influence as well.

Fellow Horse Racing Nation writer Laurie Ross explained it best in Pedigree Power when she wrote, “… right off the bat, Dosage is at least 50% flawed, or half wrong.”

Give the post a read, as it explains how she became a disbeliever in Dosage.

Handicappers can study bloodlines on their own without putting the distance potential into a number or index. For a tip, pay close attention to the immediate siblings, because those family members will reveal the surface/distance limitations better than Dosage.

2. Pedigree

On that point, once the nine-furlong prep races are over, pedigree in general becomes overrated. In what normal race do people care about the third or fourth generation?

If the sire, dam or siblings show ambiguous clues, then sure, look past the first generation. But it feels like people fall too far toward bloodlines in analyzing the Derby.

When it comes to a 1 1/4-mile race for 3-year-olds in early May, suddenly everyone becomes a pedigree wizard, making speed figures ironically an undervalued factor.

Here is one rule to follow for all races: The more a horse runs, the less pedigree matters. As a horse moves along in its career and attempts new situations, the results will unveil the runner’s capabilities and lessen the need to study bloodlines.

3. UAE Derby

Every year the UAE Derby (G2) winner comes to the Kentucky Derby, attracts hype money and fails to hit the board. In fact, no Dubai winner has even hit the Derby Top 3.

For instance, Mendelssohn won the Dubai prep last year and came into Churchill Downs with a ton of hype behind him as one of the major contenders. He started in the Derby at 6-1 off his 18-length desert win, and finished last by over 73 lengths.

In 2017, Thunder Snow went off at a milder 16-1, attempted to buck off his rider at the start and did not complete the race. 

In 2016, Lani finished ninth at 29-1, and in 2015 Mubtaahij ran an even eighth at 14-1.

Discounting the UAE Derby winner is a wise idea, especially if it is a speed horse who wins on the biased track. Meydan's golden rail will only exaggerate the victory.