What can bettors learn from Rebel, Gotham upsets?

Confidence Game and Raise Cain pulled off double-digit odds upsets on the Kentucky Derby trail in recent weeks when the former took the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and the latter captured the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct.

What can bettors learn from those two wins? Both Confidence Game and Raise Cain had the common denominator of Fair Grounds before they won. They also had extreme pace situations that affected their stretch runs at Fair Grounds. Their “mediocre” performances at that track translated into wins elsewhere.

Before the Rebel, Confidence Game competed in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 21 and appeared flat in the stretch when finishing third. But chasing the fast pace set by Echo Again affected his late punch, and therefore he offered no fight when Two Phil's moved past him and Instant Coffee mowed the entire field down.  

Confidence Game lost the Lecomte by 7 3/4 lengths, which is partially why bettors ignored him at Oaklawn in the Rebel. The public underrated the quality of the Lecomte field, while Confidence Game faced lesser horses in the Rebel. Favoritism went to last year’s Champagne Stakes (G1) runner-up Verifying, who earned attention off his fast local optional claiming win upon returning to action.

After traveling wide in the Rebel, Confidence Game took over in the stretch and prevailed by one length over the deep closer Red Route One.

Meanwhile, the favorite Verifying encountered trouble on the far turn when blocked and failed to respond when he found room late. Confidence Game resulted in a great day for his supporters at 18-1.

On paper, it felt like Confidence Game wanted to set the pace in order to turn in his best effort. Or perhaps closing against a weaker group of horses in the Rebel allowed him fire his best shot from a wide position.

As for Raise Cain, forget about his synthetic race at Turfway Park in January. Before the Gotham, Raise Cain last competed on dirt in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds on Dec. 26 against a seemingly modest field led by the favorite Determinedly, who pressed Jace’s Road through slow fractions.

Raise Cain initially settled in fifth through the first two fractions but with only three lengths to make up after the half-mile point. When Jace’s Road opened up in the stretch run after the soft pace to win by 5 1/2 lengths, Raise Cain managed to catch a fading Determinedly to pick up second by a head.

Because of the soft pace, Raise Cain failed to make a dent on Jace’s Road. Jace’s Road had only light pressure from Determinedly and took advantage of the situation. But overall, Raise Cain turned in a deceptively good effort to earn second late given the lack of pace.

Raise Cain’s 5 1/2-length loss in the Gun Runner, coupled with the off-the-board finish at Turfway and the under-the-radar trainer Ben Colebrook, resulted in Raise Cain starting at 23-1 odds in the Gotham at Aqueduct.   

In contrast to the Gun Runner, the Gotham pace scenario ended up fast and helped Raise Cain rally on the turn. Even though Raise Cain briefly found trouble when he failed to fit inside a horse traveling on the rail, Raise Cain managed to move around that horse and sustain his move in the stretch. Raise Cain opened up on the field and finished strong to win by 7 1/2 lengths while also keeping the riderless horse at bay as they both neared the wire.

Even though Raise Cain had help from the collapsing pace scenario, he outran his 23-1 odds and provided a great betting day for his supporters.

As the trail wraps up with the races in late March and early April, keep in mind the Fair Grounds runners who competed in the Gun Runner, Lecomte or even the Risen Star Stakes (G2), which also featured a fast pace scenario.

Those Fair Grounds runners could offer big odds if they travel to different regions in search of those final Derby points and become ignored by bettors.