Wet weather picks for Pimlico's Preakness 2018 day races

Handicapping wet dirt races can be a challenge, as there are various approaches to take. Past record in mud or slop is obviously important, but sometimes horses do not own any experience. Pedigree is a factor, too, although it can be confusing for beginners to learn which families are geared well toward wet tracks.

There are also Tomlinson Ratings, which I don't use. Essentially, the ratings are another way to measure a horse’s pedigree potential for mud. While some bettors find this useful, it is better to research the pedigree independently.

Did the dam like racing on mud or slop? Did she produce offspring that won races over those kinds of surfaces? Those are helpful questions with which to start.

In addition, some people believe wet dirt favors speed, while others think it is difficult to retain the lead on a gooey surface. Any bias depends on a few external factors, such as whether the maintenance crew is able to work on the track.

Nevertheless, here are a few horses to watch (assuming the main track is wet) for the 2018 Preakness Stakes card on Saturday at Pimlico:

Race 4

Assuming this race is taken off the turf, American Sailor may go off as a sneaky longshot at 10-1 on the morning line. Buried beneath a plethora of turf races in his record are some solid efforts on mud and slop. Specifically, the Nov. 6 and Sept. 3 races look high on the TimeformUS scale, although the September effort came at lowly Suffolk Downs. 

Sometimes, bettors only look at the most recent races to analyze a horse. But when a horse owns wet dirt experience, it is wise to pay attention to those races.

Race 5 (JW Murphy Stakes)

Consider Takedown at 15-1 in the small chance the race is taken off turf. In most cases, racetracks are hesitant to switch surfaces for their stakes races, but with the forecast calling for heavy rain Friday and continued rain Saturday morning, who knows? 

Takedown ran a lifetime best 95 Brisnet Speed Rating in his Feb. 18 effort on mud at Laurel Park. If he repeats that on the mud or slop this weekend, he can win. 

The numbers look a little different on TimeformUS, as it is only his third-best race on there. But he is still a logical contender on dirt using both brands. 

In addition, Takedown’s grandsire, A.P. Indy, is one of the best mud influences out there. Most of the sires from his line tend to produce mud-capable offspring.  

If the race runs as planned on the grass, forget about this horse.

Race 8 (Chick Lang Stakes)

Clouded Judgment turned in the best performance of his career on mud, earning a recent 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure at Laurel Park. 

There are a couple of things to nitpick before breaking out the bank account. The race came in his second start off the bench, and horses move up in such a situation. Plus, as a 3-year-old horse it is expected he runs faster than before. 

Still, at 20-1 it is not a bad idea to take a chance a horse who already proved himself on mud. Pace Projector has him sitting behind a fast pace.

Race 10 (G3 Maryland Sprint Stakes) 

Two starts ago, 4-year-old Tapit colt Heartwood turned in a solid closing performance to win at Keeneland over a sloppy racetrack. The effort is sandwiched in between two mediocre performances on dry dirt, where he finished seventh in both cases. 

The 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure is still a little behind some of these horses, but if he gets pace to run into, anything can happen at double-digit odds. 

Race 12 (Sir Barton Stakes)

Time to use a pedigree angle. Title Ready is a grandson of Personal Ensign, a legendary horse who finished her career undefeated by winning the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Distaff on a sloppy racetrack over Derby champion Winning Colors. 

Personal Ensign produced many horses in her broodmare career. One notable daughter was My Flag, who won the 1996 Gazelle Stakes (G1) over mud.  

Without any wet dirt starts on record, Title Ready is still a bit of a guess. Horses are not a guarantee to follow their bloodlines, as most experienced bettors know. But given Title Ready’s family, the surface condition should be his least concern. 

Race 13 (G1 Preakness Stakes)

Last summer at Saratoga, Lone Sailor broke his maiden by 11 lengths on a sloppy track in an impressive performance. He earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and failed to duplicate the number in three other 2017 starts.  

Upon return in January, he finally hit 100 on the speed figure scale. His fastest race, though, came in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago on the slop, where he earned a 115 despite finishing eighth and over nine lengths behind the winner Justify. A few observers also pointed out Free Drop Billy backed into him during the race.

With a cleaner trip, perhaps Lone Sailor can outrun his longshot odds in the Preakness and shake up the chalky-looking tote board.