Saratoga: Wet Paint can re-establish herself in CCA Oaks

Only a few months ago, Wet Paint stood on top of the 3-year-old dirt filly division after three consecutive stakes wins at Oaklawn Park. Now after two straight losses, Wet Paint heads into the Grade 1, $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on Saturday with the need to redeem herself.

Luckily, Wet Paint has an excuse for running second to Hoosier Philly in the Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes at Ellis Park. The pace was just too slow and never gave Wet Paint a fair chance to kick in with her best effort.

For those who missed the Monomoy Girl recap at the time, here is recap of the race between Wet Paint and Hoosier Philly. 

Hoosier Philly secured an uncontested lead and posted glacial fractions of 25.23, 48.86 and 1:13.16 for the first three fractions.

Given the shorter one-mile distance and Hoosier Philly's class level, she already won the race at the half. Good stakes-level horses almost never lose with that type of lead and those kind of fractions combined. 

Wet Paint lagged in last through those early fractions in the five-horse field. She moved inside on the turn and finally started to pick off the other fillies at the top of the stretch, but the rally came too late as Hoosier Philly opened up in the stretch run.

Hoosier Philly won by 3 1/2 lengths over a closing Wet Paint in second, with another 5 1/4 lengths to Flamand in third. From a handicapping standpoint, Wet Paint deserves forgiveness for finishing second because of the slow fractions if she can offer the right odds next time out. Wet Paint gave enough of a run to give the benefit of the doubt.

Wet Paint’s fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) two starts ago feels less forgivable. In this scenario, Wet Paint had enough pace to close into since the speedy Flying Connection set fractions of 23.07, 46.96 and 1:11.28.

Wet Paint also had enough room to shoot through in the stretch. But she went by horses slowly, and The Alys Look outfinished her for third.

Did the nine-furlong distance prove too long for Wet Paint? Considering Wet Paint’s pedigree, it would seem strange if she could not handle nine furlongs. Her sire is Blame and the damsire is Street Cry, and both of them tilt toward the routing side. Also, the dam Sky Painter won at as long as nine furlongs in a career filled with mostly turf optional claimers.

Pretty Mischievous ended up capturing the Kentucky Oaks by a narrow margin over Gambling Girl, with Wet Paint in fourth by a margin of three lengths.      

Perhaps the Kentucky Oaks can count as an outlier for Wet Paint. But at this point, she needs to win an important race to re-establish herself as one of the top fillies. Right now, Wet Paint looks unreliable from a betting standpoint and slightly overrated from those Oaklawn wins earlier in the year.

But if Wet Paint won the Coaching Club American Oaks, she would pick up a Grade 1 race for the first time while beating a decent field that includes a rejuvenated Hoosier Philly and the Kentucky Oaks runner-up Gambling Girl.

From a running-style standpoint, Wet Paint is at a disadvantage again with a closing style that does not work well at higher levels without a fast pace ahead. In contrast, Hoosier Philly either can set the pace or possibly sit in a stalking position if another filly becomes too eager and takes the early lead. Nevertheless, Wet Paint is capable of turning the tables. 

From a betting standpoint, Wet Paint’s odds should reflect the fact she lost to Hoosier Philly and lost the Kentucky Oaks. In other words, Wet Paint bettors are supposed to demand a higher price than for Hoosier Philly, especially since Hoosier Philly offers more tactical speed than Wet Paint.

It feels like Hoosier Philly is on the upswing heading into the Coaching Club American Oaks after a shaky start to the year,while Wet Paint has been stuck in neutral after a fast start and multiple wins earlier in the season. But this all could change this week as the two fillies meet again.