Weekend Plays: Tap It To Win aims for a Gulfstream rebound

In most cases, a horse by Tapit out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare will route better than most runners. But in Tap It To Win’s case, he gave poor efforts in his two tries at stretching out last fall in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Street Sense Stakes. He makes his return in a six-furlong Florida-bred restricted allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Whether the cutback in distance helps or if the time off causes him to mature and grow as a racehorse, he could rebound in this soft return spot.

Tap It To Win leads off the five Saturday selections across Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs.

Gulfstream Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming, 3-year-olds

First of all, Tap It To Win displayed a lot of promise in his second career start when he broke his maiden in a six-furlong sprint at Saratoga last August.

After contesting the lead on the rail, Tap It To Win lost position before the turn and had to wait behind horses in the pocket position. But taking dirt did not bother him. Once the rail opened up again, Tap It To Win kicked on through and drew clear.

For the 3 ½-length win, Tap It To Win received a lofty 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, an impressive number for a 2-year-old racing in August.

Tap It To Win then regressed in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. After using his natural speed to hit the front on the first turn, he fought the hold Tyler Gaffalione put on him and visibly threw his head up in the air a couple of times.

On the far turn, Tap It To Win then called it a day after chasing the leader and quit. He folded to a dismal 10th and last, 43 ½ lengths behind the winner Maxfield.

A few weeks later in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, Tap It To Win did not fight the restraint as hard as he did at Keeneland. But he still quit, folding to 10th again and a dismal 21 ¼ lengths behind the winner South Bend.

Cross out those two route races. He will get more opportunities to prove himself at longer distances in the future, but for now he gets to compete at six furlongs with only one other major threat in I’ll Fight Dempsey, the 3-1 morning line favorite.

Even if Tap It To Win falls a little below his 5-1 odds, that is still fair. If he reverts back to his Saratoga form or improves upon it, he could win his return race.

Gulfstream Race 7: Allowance, 3-year-old fillies on turf

Compensate finished runner-up in the local March 21 Melody of Colors Stakes at five furlongs, the same distance as this race. She lost by a clear 1 ¾ lengths to Hear My Prayer, but still held a good 3 ¼ lengths on the third-place Foolish Humor.  

For what it is worth, Hear My Prayer previously won a five-furlong turf allowance by 2 ¾ lengths before fading to sixth in the two-turn Ginger Brew Stakes.

Compensate can make amends in this spot. TimeformUS Pace Projector thinks she will sit in third early on, right behind Fast Scene and Foolish Humor again.

Expect Compensate to convert the expected good early tactical position into a win. If her morning line odds of 5-1 are accurate, that is more than fair on this filly.

Gulfstream Race 10: Allowance Optional Claimer, 4+, T

Shootin the Breeze only owns one win in 11 starts, and that might scare bettors at first glance. Before passing on him though, check out the names in his running lines.

Last year, Shootin the Breeze finished second to Clint Maroon in a Gulfstream allowance race, third to Demarchelier in a Keeneland allowance and to English Bee in the James W. Murphy Stakes at Pimlico. He went on to be second to Valid Point in a Belmont allowance before going off form in his last three 2019 races.

Shootin the Breeze returned this year with a decent effort, fading to fourth in another local allowance race after mounting a mild bid on the far turn.

He faces no notable names in this race. At 8-1 or a little below that, Shootin the Breeze is a fair price to finally pick up his second career victory.

Tampa Bay Race 3: Claiming, 4-year-olds and up

According to TimeformUS' Pace Projector, The Stifler will sit in second through a paceless race with Fourth Design leading. Fourth Design has some stamina questions, as he faded to third in his last route attempt at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Stifler, meanwhile, won his local April 11 claiming race on the lead over Zitman, who is the morning line 5/2 favorite in this race.

If Zitman is the favorite, then why not choose The Stifler at 3-1? He already beat him before and projectors to sit in a closer position as well.

The Stifler is the main choice, based on his early speed and pace scenario.

Tampa Bay Race 7: Maiden, 3+

Dark Web is 0 for 6, which is a concern when picking out maiden winners. But he holds the pace advantage in this race and knows how to fight in the stretch.

The 5/2 second choice on the morning line, Expensive Style, does not know how to switch leads. That cost him on April 11 at Gulfstream, when he faded to fifth late. In the same maiden race, Dark Web held third after contesting the pace.

Even at a low price, Dark Web is the choice.