Weekend Plays: Slop boosts Lone Sailor in Tenacious Stakes
When handicapping wet dirt races, searching for descendants of A.P. Indy is usually a good idea. His line of sires produces great mud runners.
With that in mind, Fair Grounds is hosting the $75,000 Tenacious Stakes on what's expected to be a rainy Saturday. Lone Sailor, the grandson of A.P. Indy, will compete in his favorite conditions once again.
He leads the five Fair Grounds selections for the card.
Fair Grounds Race 12: Tenacious Stakes
On first glance, Lone Sailor's wet dirt record is nothing special at 6: 1-2-0. But cross off the recent Korea Cup (G1) flop, as it required a lengthy ship.
Instead, look back to Lone Sailor's April 19 effort in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) over a sloppy track. Lone Sailor closed on the outside to finish second by a neck after two mediocre performances to start off his campaign. For this runner-up effort, Lone Sailor earned a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
Last year, Lone Sailor ran a strong fifth in the 2018 Preakness over a sloppy track, only losing by two lengths to the champion Justify. Lone Sailor earned a 123 on TimeformUS, which still ties for his highest number on that scale.
Cross out the eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby over slop.
Going back further, Lone Sailor broke his maiden by 11 lengths over a sloppy Saratoga dirt surface in September 2017 with a 102 on TimeformUS. The 102 figure ended up as his best speed figure out of his first five races.
The rail is not an ideal draw, but at 6-1 Lone Sailor can spring a mild upset on Saturday.
Fair Grounds Race 3: Letellier Memorial Stakes
Taraz is not part of
A.P. Indy's family. But she is a granddaughter of Empire Maker on the
dam side, the 2003 Belmont Stakes winner over slop.
There is plenty to like about Taraz's maiden win, as she
trounced a field at Churchill Downs by 7 ½ lengths. She won under a
mild hand ride, giving the impression of another move forward against
better fillies in this spot.
There are also strong
connections behind Taraz in trainer Brad Cox and Juddmonte Farms,
along with jockey Florent Geroux. According to TimeformUS, the
Geroux/Cox combination hits at an excellent 24-percent.
Even
at 2-1 odds, Taraz gets the nod. Just from watching her blowout
maiden win, she gives the impression of a filly with a bright future.
Fair Grounds Race 4: Maiden
Strike Appeal has a “Z pattern” in his most recent running line. He shows early foot, drops back and
re-rallies.
In a Keeneland turf maiden race, Strike
Appeal initially settled in seventh, 4 ½ lengths off the leader,
before falling to 10th, 8 ¼ lengths behind. In the stretch run, he moved slightly up to sixth while 7 ¼ lengths back.
Two races
ago, Strike Appeal finished a decent fourth to the future Breeders'
Futurity (G1) winner Maxfield after making a brief move on the
turn.
Despite losing his first three starts, Strike Appeal is
learning and deserves another chance from bettors. At 7-2, that is a
fair deal to take a shot.
Fair Grounds Race 10: Sugar Bowl Stakes
As a son of Tapiture, Axiomo is part of the A.P. Indy line.
Plus, Axiomo already showed his affinity for slop on Nov. 23 at Churchill Downs when he won an allowance race by ¾ of a length. The margin is deceiving because he needed to wait momentarily in the stretc.
Cross out his eighth-place finish in the Street Sense Stakes, as the stretch out did not agree with him. His turf races are not important either.
Axiomo won his second start in a six-furlong dirt allowance race at Indiana Grand, and now he competes at six furlongs again in this spot.
At 5-1, Axiomo is a great value assuming the track is wet.
Fair Grounds Race 13: Allowance Optional Claimer
Excession is part of the A.P. Indy line through his dam sire, Tapit. Also, his sire Union Rags is a good sire for wet dirt as well. This is a mud pedigree.
In his fifth start, Excession lived up to that billing by fighting tooth and nail to capture a Churchill Downs maiden by a neck. The impressive part is that nine lengths separated the runner-up and third-place finisher.
As often discussed here, spaced-out margins signal a quality race. Plus, Excession earned a solid 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his first win.
This race's favorite, Mr. Monomoy, earned a 94 in his maiden win, although he did it easily. Most of the money will go to Mr. Monomoy given he's a winning half-brother of a recent champion.
With Mr. Monomoy present, Excession could offer the right value.