Weekend Plays: Shoplifted will appreciate cutback in Woody Stephens

Depending on the entries, short fields can offer a fast pace. Large fields promote a fast pace because of the higher number of horses, but a small group might encourage a situation where jockeys do not want to let any horse lead comfortably.

In the Grade 1, $250,000 Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard, only five horses are entered. Three of those horses own significant speed, though, which means the race flow favors a horse with a closing late punch.

The lone closer in this race is Shoplifted, and he is the choice based on the given scenario. Shoplifted leads off the five June 20 Belmont Stakes undercard selections.

Belmont Race 2: Woody Stephens Stakes (G1)

Two months ago, Shoplifted competed in the nine-furlong Oaklawn Stakes on slop. After closing into a fast pace and reaching contention on the far turn, he was flat in the lane and faded to fifth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner, Mr. Big News.

In his other Derby trail attempts, Shoplifted faded late.

Two starts ago, Shoplifted reached contention in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and tipped out before losing ground in the stretch and finishing 8 3/4 lengths behind. Three starts ago, Shoplifted stalked the pace closely in the Smarty Jones Stakes before losing ground and finishing 5 1/2 lengths back.

Shoplifted figures to appreciate cutting back to seven furlongs after those failed route attempts on the trail.

Last summer at Saratoga, Shoplifted broke his maiden in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, opening up by 4 1/2 lengths with a good turn of foot. True routers do not break their maidens in that fashion while running a sprint.

With that said, other pace handicappers will view the Woody Stephens in the same way. As long as Shoplifted remains the fourth or fifth choice, he is the right horse to play. If he falls below the fourth choice, then the value is questionable. Watch the tote board before deciding.

Belmont Race 4: Pennine Ridge Stakes (G2)

Maroon Maniac looks like an interesting value option in this race, even though he shows zero stakes experience and only two maiden starts.

On April 18, he broke his maiden in an off-the-turf race at Tampa Bay Downs. It is hard to use that race as evidence for anything, as dirt is not comparable to turf.

His runner-up finish in the Feb. 12 maiden race on grass is more interesting. Maroon Maniac ran second to a Chad Brown-trained gelding named Domestic Spending by only 3/4 of a length. Domestic Spending returned to win a Belmont allowance race on June 7, backing up the effort.

The fourth-place My Eclair also broke his maiden at Tampa Bay on April 15.

While Maroon Maniac’s 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure is not exciting, he earned that number in February and four months have passed since then.

In this spot, Javier Castellano takes the call for trainer Jonathan Thomas. When Thomas uses Castellano, he means business.

Before conceding this race to the favorite Decorated Invader, give Maroon Maniac a closer look. He is certain to offer a nice price.

Belmont Race 6: Wonder Again Stakes (G3)

Antoinette ran credibly in her two starts this year, finishing third in the Gardenia Stakes and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) after flashing tactical speed.

As suggested earlier, dirt racing is not the same as turf racing. But Antoinette does own successful turf experience too, as she broke her maiden on turf at Belmont last October and also finished a closing fourth in her career debut.

Antoinette can use her early speed to stick close to Sweet Melania. Sweet Melania is a tough customer, but Antoinette offers value and can upset the favorite if Sweet Melania fails to improve off her 2-year-old form.

Antoinette is the choice.

Belmont Race 8: Acorn Stakes (G1)

Lucrezia chased a nice filly in Swiss Skydiver through a slow pace in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), finishing second by 3 1/4 lengths. Swiss Skydiver continued her ascent to the top afterwards, as she went on to capture both the Fantasy Stakes (G3) and Santa Anita Oaks (G2).

In this race, Lucrezia does face some talented runners in Gamine and Casual. However, both of those opponents do not own experience at the stakes level. Gamine won her Oaklawn allowance race in a fast time, but she beat an average filly in Speech. Casual did not face a strong runner-up either in She Can’t Sing at Churchill Downs.

Lucrezia can utilize her speed to stay close. Perhaps Lucrezia proves that good stakes experience outweighs a flashy allowance win.

Belmont Race 9: Jaipur Stakes (G1)

Oleksandra recently finished runner-up in the Monrovia Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. She took a half-second too long to tip out and wind up but came in a flash late.

Last year, the 6-year-old mare won the Franklin County Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and the Buffalo County Stakes at Saratoga. She also defeated males in a local allowance optional claimer last June, at the same six-furlong distance as this race.

Facing males in this spot is not an issue. The only concern is whether Oleksandra finds traffic an issue before unwinding her late kick.  

Regardless, Oleksandra is the choice. If she finds the right path, watch out.