Weekend Plays: Mia Mischief gets the Carousel Stakes nod

One common handicapping rule is to overlook a horse’s first start off the layoff. Especially with stakes horses geared toward a long campaign, most runners fire their best shot in their second or third start back, even if they win upon return.

In Mia Mischief’s case, she makes her second start off a 140-day layoff in the six-furlong $125,000 Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. Accordingly, she leads off Saturday's five selections across Oaklawn and Gulfstream.

Oaklawn Race 10: Carousel Stakes

From a visual standpoint, Mia Mischief’s March 20 return win in a local allowance optional claimer looks mild at best. She closed from off the pace to win by 2 ¼ lengths after some vigorous urging by Ricardo Santana Jr. in the stretch run.

For the victory, Mia Mischief received a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

But on Mia Mischief’s best day, she is capable of defeating most sprinters. Last May, Mia Mischief won the Humana Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs with a 125 TimeformUS numbered. She followed up the excellent effort by winning the Roxelana Overnight Stakes on the same course with a 118, defeating the future champion Covfefe in the process.

Mia Mischief also owns a nice Oaklawn record at 5: 3-2-0.

According to TimeformUS' Pace Projector, Amy’s Challenge and Sunny Dale will provide a hot pace for Mia Mischief to chase. Granted, the pace could also benefit Bellafina on the rail, but she could get caught in some traffic.

At 9/2, Mia Mischief is a great value to move forward second off the bench.

Oaklawn Race 8: Allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up

A. P. Princess could only close for a mild fourth in a local March 27 allowance optional claimer. She lost by 3 ¾ lengths with a modest 98 from TimeformUS.

But A. P. Princess faced some nice horses in that race. The winner, Sunny Dale, is entered in the Carousel Stakes against graded stakes-quality fillies. Also, the third-place Wholehearted returned to win the Wilma Mankiller Stakes at Will Rogers.

Additionally, TimeformUS Pace Projector calls for a fast pace with Bootyama, Ready to Runaway, Flat Out Speed and Sneaking Out projected to contest the lead.

With an outside post, A. P. Princess will also enjoy a clear trip ahead.

At double-digit odds, she is another value option to include on tickets.

Oaklawn Race 11: Maidens, 3 and up

Aztec Empire was a selection in this Friday column for an April 4 maiden race, and he disappointed with a fading third-place finish. But jockey Calvin Borel jumped the gun with a premature move which resulted in the colt losing ground in the stretch.

With Joe Talamo now aboard, the outcome could turn out differently. According to TimeformUS, the Talamo/Ron Moquett combination has hit at 23 percent over the past year. TimeformUS gives the jockey/trainer combination a 100 rating.

As for other threats, Aztec Empire does face Copper King again, the runner-up in that April 24 race. But Aztec Empire ran four lengths ahead of him on March 20. In all likelihood, there is not a huge difference between those two, except that Aztec Empire offers a better price.

As for the morning line favorite Unrighteous, he probably wants to go longer than 1 1/16 miles. His big Gulfstream runner-up effort on Feb. 8 came at nine furlongs.

As long as he is not favored, Aztec Empire is the choice.

Gulfstream Race 8: Allowance, 4 and up

Legit is another horse making his second start off the layoff. The 5-year-old son of Curlin returned in a 6 ½-furlong allowance optional claimer on March 6 at Aqueduct, closing from 12 lengths to finish third by 3 ¼ lengths.

Given his sire, Legit probably does not want to sprint.

Previously, Legit broke his maiden at first asking locally two years ago at one mile. A month later, he took a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Pimlico by four lengths before the long 659-day layoff. In both races, he closed from behind.

For the return loss, Legit still earned a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While the 108 is only a mild number compared to the rest of this field, he can build off the number stretching out in his second start back for trainer Todd Pletcher.  

According to Pace Projector, Legit will receive more than enough speed to set him up. Even though Legit is the morning line favorite at 5/2, he is the logical choice.

Gulfstream Race 11: Allowance, 4+

Spinoff and Global Campaign enter this interesting allowance optional claimer at seven furlongs. Spinoff comes off a 260-day layoff, and Global Campaign makes his first start back after 273 days on the bench.

Both colts are obviously talented, but neither of them need to win this seven-furlong race with bigger goals on the schedule.

One speedy alternative is Rare Form, who initially set a fast pace in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3) before folding to 11th and last by 25 lengths. He is better than that effort, though.

Check out his race in the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3), where he ran third by three lengths, or his runner-up to graded winner Blended Citizen in a Nov. 28 allowance at Churchill Downs.

He cuts back in distance and gets an easier pace scenario in this spot. If Rare Form can secure a comfortable lead and open up, he can hold on for the win.