Weekend Plays: Is Monomoy Girl worth playing against?

Given the possibility of rain, Monomoy Girl’s return in a Churchill Downs allowance optional claimer on Saturday becomes slightly more interesting from a betting standpoint.

Coming off a 560-day layoff without a single wet dirt race on record, it does not make sense to rely on Monomoy Girl as a single. The notion that “good horses run on anything” is false, as some horses cannot perform the same on mud or slop. Likewise, some mud or slop specialists cannot grip a fast dirt surface as well.

If it rains, consider one alternative who leads off these five selections for opening day at Churchill Downs.

Lady Kate aims for her third win of the year in this spot against Monomoy Girl. She won her first two 2020 starts against optional claiming company at the same one-mile distance, earning moderate 104 and 106 figures on the TimeformUS scale.

In Lady Kate’s March 16 effort, she tackled the Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3). Despite fading to fifth, Lady Kate ran better than the running line suggests.

According to TimeformUS, the first two fractions of the Hurricane Bertie were fast. Lady Kate only ran 1 ½ lengths off the leader after the opening quarter, which means she had to work hard to keep up.

On the far turn, Lady Kate faded. But she never quite gave up in the stretch and finished fifth, unlike the pacesetter Blamed who folded terribly to ninth and last. Notice how Blamed returned to take an April 30 optional claimer at Oaklawn Park by three lengths in her next start. Also, the sixth-place W W Fitzy won a local April 3 optional claimer.

In addition, Lady Kate is a daughter of Bernardini, who is better than average with wet dirt runners. Most sires from the A.P. Indy line produce decent mud horses.

Consider Lady Kate as a possible upset option, especially if it rains.   

Churchill Race 1: Maiden Claiming 3 and up

Ugo could only manage two ninth-place finishes at Oaklawn. He lost by 10 ½ and 30 lengths in those two clunkers at the maiden special weight level.

Toss out the second maiden attempt, however, on April 11. Ugo tried a two-turn route on slop for the first time and also ran wide on both turns. The poor effort is best ignored.

In this spot, Ugo cuts back to six furlongs and drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. Against easier competition at a shorter distance, he will last longer. Hopefully, Martin Garcia can hustle this gelding forward early from the rail and secure a decent position.

Against this weak field, Ugo is the main choice.

Churchill Race 7: Maidens, 3 and up

As the fourth filly on the also-eligible list, Magic Motion might find some trouble in drawing into this maiden race. But if she gets in, she deserves a closer look.

First of all, this is also a daughter of Bernardini. If the rain comes, she is supposed to handle it.

Magic Motion’s career debut at Saratoga last summer wasn't terrible, either. After lagging toward the back in eighth, she made a mild move to pick up sixth late. For most horses, the career debut works as an important learning experience. Most first-time starters do not come into their debut prepared to handle any adversity and fire.

For the sixth-place effort, she earned a 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That kind of number is decent for a 2-year-old filly in August.

Now a 3-year-old filly, Magic Motion deserves a spot on tickets should she run.

Churchill Race 9: Claiming, 3 and up

Adhhar could only close for a mild fourth in an April 4 optional claimer at Oaklawn, losing by 2 ½ lengths. But take a glance at the names he competed against.

The horse that crossed the wire first, Winning Impression, returned to finish fourth in the first division of the Arkansas Derby (G1) won by Charlatan. Also, the winner by disqualification, Finnick the Fierce, finished a good third in the second division won by Kentucky Derby favorite Nadal.

Adhhar now drops into a claimer, which is a minor concern. It could signal the connections lack the confidence to keep trying with him.

But if Adhhar repeats his last effort, he is a major contender against this group.

Churchill Race 10: Allowance Optional Claimer, 3-year-old fillies

Admittedly, Portrait has been a money burner with three straight losses at 3-1 or less. However, all three of those races were two-turn routes.

Portrait broke her maiden in a seven-furlong maiden race at Ellis Park last August, blitzing the field by 12 ½ lengths with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

But in her route attempts, Portrait turned into a hanger. She made a bold outside move in the Pocahontas Stakes (G2), before hanging in the stretch for third. Months later, she loomed large in the Silverbulletday Stakes and hung again in the stretch for fourth.

In the Feb. 14 optional claimer, she opened up by 1 ½ lengths before getting caught late by Alta’s Award, a filly that cannot switch leads well.

Cutting back to seven furlongs, Portrait gets one more chance in this spot.