Weekend Plays: Dessman's a vulnerable favorite at Oaklawn

As proven again last weekend, not all of trainer Bob Baffert's entries are sure things. Although the Hall of Famer will win often, the public over-bets his horses in many spots. For example, the co-favorite Thousand Words ran 11th in the Oaklawn Stakes last weekend at 5/2 odds.

Saturday at Oaklawn, Dessman makes his second start off the bench for Baffert in Race 7, a one-mile allowance race for horses 3 nd up. The morning line lists him at 5/2 as well, but he could fall even lower given his stakes experience.

Dessman's runner-up finish in his Feb. 29 return at Santa Anita only looks average considering who he lost to that day. Instead, the five April 18 selections across Oaklawn and Gulfstream Park below will start off with Wild Popit, a 5-year-old grandson of Flanders, as an alternative to bet.

Oaklawn Race 7: Allowance, 3 and up

First of all, forget about Wild Popit's career debut in 2018. He did not run well, finishing a dismal 10th by 11 lengths in a local maiden race.

Wild Popit moved forward though in another Oaklawn maiden race almost a year later, finishing third by two lengths when traveling six furlongs.

Afterwards, Wild Popit waited yet another year to compete again. He returned two months ago in the same type of race, a local six-furlong maiden sprint, and this time crossed the wire first. Along the way, Wild Popit caused enough trouble to get disqualified.

Instead of waiting another year, though, Wild Popit ran last month in another local six-furlong maiden sprint. He finally broke through, closing for a two-length win after initially losing ground early. The replay deserves a watch, as he was full of run late.

For the win, Wild Popit picked up a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Although Dessman earned a 106 in his runner-up finish last time, the difference is negligible.

Wild Popit must feel great, as the connections are running him a third time this year instead of seeing him to go the sidelines again. Stretching out to one mile shouldn't hurt, either, as most Tapit progeny can handle longer route distances. Plus, Wild Popit's second dam Flanders won the 1994 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

As long as he is not favored, Wild Popit offers enough value to play him against Dessman.

Oaklawn Race 9: Allowance, older fillies and mares

According to TimeformUS' Pace Projector, the expected tempo looks fast for this race. The projection suggests Break Even, Mt. Brave and Take Charge Angel will tangle for the lead.

Break Even and Mt. Brave dueled with each other in the Spring Fever Stakes on Feb. 29, causing both of them to fade. Break Even crossed the wire last by 12 lengths, while Mr. Brave lasted a bit longer in fourth, 4 ½ lengths behind the winner Midnight Fantasy.

However, Take Charge Angel does not need the lead. She sat off the pacesetter and won her most recent start on Feb. 27 in a Turfway Park allowance optional claimer. She also sat off the great Covfefe last year in an allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, only losing by half a length to the future champ.

Take Charge Angel is capable of the right numbers. She posted a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure last June at Churchill Downs when winning an optional claimer.

At 12-1, it is worth taking a shot.

Oaklawn Race 11: Claiming, 4 and up

In Zero Gravity's most recent start on March 21, he finished third by six lengths in a local allowance optional claimer. But upon watching the replay, he gave a decent effort.

As the running line suggests, Zero Gravity moved up approaching the far turn, getting within a neck of the eventual winner Lombo. But after the good rally, he faded late.

Despite losing by six lengths, Zero Gravity still earned a 110 on TimeformUS, suggesting he faced a strong field in defeat. For comparison, the 7/2 morning line favorite Kurilov earned a 113 in his last start. Also, the 4-1 second choice Timeline earned a 111 recently. With those two figures in mind, a 110 isn't far off.

In addition, Martin Garcia hops on board for trainer Joe Sharp. According to TimeformUS, the Garcia/Sharp combination has won at a 40 percent clip (from 20 starts) over the past year.

If Zero Gravity makes that same kind of move as last time in this spot, he could win. He shortens up to 1 1/16 miles and the race lacks any horses of Lombo's quality.

At 12-1, Zero Gravity is a value. At least include him in horizontal tickets.

Gulfstream Race 10: Starter Allowance, 3-year-olds

Blood Moon gets the nod because of his successful experience in route races. For example, he finished second by half a length to Sprawl in a Keeneland maiden race last October, earning a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a high number relative to this field. To close out the year, he won for the first time at Gulfstream in a one-mile maiden claiming race.

In his recent start, Blood Moon ran a mild fourth in a seven-furlong Starter Stakes on Feb. 17. He was compromised by a slow pace, as Scarto led mostly uncontested.

Luis Saez hops on board for trainer Danny Gargan. According to TimeformUS, the duo has won at a 36 percent clip over the past year (from 11 starts).

At 7/2, Blood Moon is the play.

Gulfstream Race 11: Allowance, older fillies and mares

Hidden Facts gets the nod in this race because she shows a slight Z pattern in her last start. In the March 7 Captiva Island Stakes, Hidden Facts initially settled in third by two lengths before dropping back to fourth by 3 ½ lengths. She crossed the wire fourth, but also closed the gap late to 1 ¾ lengths behind a good filly in Girls Know Best.

Cross out Hidden Facts' fade in the South Beach Stakes two starts ago. The deceiving 7 ½-furlong turf distance at Gulfstream runs as a two-turn route.

Hidden Facts sticks to five furlongs in this spot and draws well in Post 6. According to the Pace Projector, she will track the leaders from third in the clear, giving her every opportunity on the turn to move.

At 5-1, Hidden Facts is fair value to win.