Weekend Plays: Romans' Coastal Defense value play in Fayette

Coastal Defense makes his graded stakes debut in the Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. The well-bred colt ran the best race of his career in his two-turn route debut last time, and now stretches out to nine furlongs.   

Also, the sharp Civil Union goes for her fourth victory in a row in the Grade 1, $250,00 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park.

Below is a justification of those two selections in short race analysis and suggestions on how to wheel them in two separate Doubles tickets.

Keeneland Race 8: Fayette Stakes (G2)

The rail entry Coastal Defense lacks both stakes and nine-furlong experience. But on the second point, he also displays one of the most obvious stamina pedigrees.

For those unfamiliar with Coastal Defense’s dam Trensa, she has produced a seven-figure earner in Hawkbill, a European-based runner who took the 2016 Coral-Eclipse Stakes (G1) and 2018 Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), both at the 1¼-mile distance. Americans will also recognize Trensa's other foal by Union Rags, Free Drop Billy, the 2017 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) winner.

On paper, Curlin paired with Trensa equals a long-winded router.

But until Coastal Defense's Churchill Downs allowance win Sept. 27, he never tried a race beyond one mile in six overall starts. He still performed reasonably well in his prior races, minus the troubled turf attempt in April. But he lacked the kind of snappy move that benefits a mid-pack closer in elongated sprints or one-turn miles.

In that Sept. 27 Churchill allowance, Coastal Defense gave the best effort of his career in a two-turn 1 1/16-mile route, with some notable changes to his strategy and visual appearance in the stretch.

Instead of closing from mid-pack or farther, Coastal Defense took the initiative by setting the pace. On the front end, he put away Luna’s In Charge on the far turn. Then, he also kept Kentucky Derby also-ran Major Fed at bay in the stretch with only a mild hand ride. Granted, Coastal Defense took advantage of a slow pace too, but he ran in a more comfortable and easy manner compared to his runner-up effort two starts ago.

On Sept. 5, in a seven-furlong allowance at Churchill, Joe Talamo did everything he could in the stretch to urge Coastal Defense by giving him urgent whip strikes and shaking the reigns aggressively, but Coastal Defense took forever to move forward and only was strong very late.   

Watching those two replays is like observing two different horses. One is a confident pacesetter who kept an experienced stakes runner in Major Fed at bay, while the other is a lazy closer who needs Talamo to carry him.

In the Sept. 27 win, Coastal Defense shows only a one-point improvement on TimeformUS, moving from a 110 to 111. But the 111 figure was also adjusted down for a slow pace, meaning the raw figure before adjustment was 117.

Coastal Defense needs to improve again in the nine-furlong Fayette while facing a tougher pace. With his own stablemate Mr Freeze bringing questionable form though into this race off a poor effort in the Alysheba Stakes (G2), it is fair to take a shot on an improving horse.

At no less than 5-1, Coastal Defense is playable as a win bet. Remember that TVG is offering the “Money Back Special” on this race for a single $10 win wager.

In the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) one race afterwards, Sweet Melania figures to set a moderate pace with Harvey’s Lil Goil running close by. While Magic Attitude poses a win threat once again from behind, the value is not there and she faces better fillies this time.

Win: 1

Fayette/QE II Double: 1 / 1,2

Belmont Race 8: Flower Bowl Stakes (G1)

Civil Union takes a three-race streak into this race, including wins in the 1½-mile River Memories Stakes and 1 3/8-mile Glens Falls Stakes (G2). In the latter race, she won by one length over My Sister Nat, with Beau Belle a neck behind in third.

My Sister Nat enters this race tied with Civil Union at 3-1 on the morning line, while Beau Belle is a longshot at 12-1. All three mares are behind the favorite Cambier Parc at 5-2.

Given the winning streak and trainer Shug McGaughey, why is Civil Union not more respected? For one, she does not dominate races. Secondly, My Sister Nat is not seen as one of the top turf routers even though she is listed as 3-1 in this spot. The public needs to see Civil Union win this Grade 1 race over a more well-known Cambier Parc.

At least Civil Union brings tactical speed. Joel Rosario can either press the leader or attempt to settle into a pocket position and wait patiently behind Beau Belle, Nay Lady Nay or even Cambier Parc depending on what strategy the favorite uses.

In contrast, My Sister Nat is expected to concede six lengths or more early.

Cambier Parc is capable of winning as the favorite, but her return effort in the Canadian Stakes (G2) at Woodbine is disappointing visually as Rideforthecause drew clear by four lengths to win that race. Cambier Parc did not even fight that move in the stretch run.

It is possible Cambier Parc moves forward and wins again in this spot, but accepting her as the favorite after she lost to a 22-1 shot who had been facing allowance foes is a low value play. The public is not going to lay off this filly, especially not with turf guru Chad Brown training her.

Assuming Cambier Parc has not made progress off last season, Civil Union is capable of taking advantage as the in-form mare in this race. She enters lightly raced with only seven starts with room to improve.

At no less than 3-1 odds, Civil Union is the play.

In the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Happy Saver might try to steal the race from Tacitus. Also, Prioritize receives an interesting jockey switch to Luis Saez. On numbers and class, Tacitus is probably the best horse. But he repeatedly disappoints bettors and offers little value.

Win: 3

Flower Bowl/JCGC Double: 3 / 1,2