Weekend Plays: Basin may enjoy cutback, slop in Amsterdam
For handicappers who love rain, Saratoga’s Saturday card is the one to focus on with four graded stakes races on tap and a 90 percent chance of precipitation. As usual, it is time to analyze those four stakes races and pick some winners below.
In the middle of the card, the six-furlong Amsterdam Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds is the most intriguing betting race out of the group. It features only six horses, but all six of them are talented horses including former Kentucky Derby prospect Basin, who is cutting back.
Basin leads off the four Saratoga selections for Aug. 29.
Saratoga Race 7: Amsterdam Stakes (G2)
After a dismal 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), Basin is off the grueling Derby trail. Prior to the race, Basin won the first division of the Arkansas Derby (G1) via disqualification after Charlatan tested positive. He also owns a fourth in the Oaklawn Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes (G2).
Even when Basin hit the top four in the Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Stakes and Rebel, he made a habit of losing ground to the winner late.
In contrast, last summer Basin finished strong in all three starts, all in sprints.
In his career debut, he made a closing bid to only miss by a nose. Then, he broke his maiden on this course by 1¼ lengths against a familiar name in Three Technique.
His last start as a 2-year-old also came locally in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). After stalking the pace, Basin took the lead and opened up to cruise home by 6½ lengths. He also won over slop, which gives him a graded stakes win on the same course and expected surface type.
In this spot, Basin figures to sit behind Yaupon, Long Weekend, Premier Star and possibly Wondrwherecraigis early. Although TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a slow pace, that is difficult to believe given those four horses named own enough speed to set the pace.
Basin figures to take control on the turn once the speed fizzles out.
At his morning line odds of 7/2, he is a great choice.
Saratoga Race 3: Saranac Stakes (G3)
Assuming the Saranac stays on turf, it is hard to ignore L'Imperator. This 3-year-old colt makes his first start for turf guru Chad Brown after four starts in France.
Overseas, L'Imperator won three out of four starts. All four starts came on soft turf, which means he owns successful experience on wet days.
L'Imperator is also training well here.
On XBTV, watch L'Imperator’s Aug. 14 work in company with Noor Sahara, the runner-up in the De La Rose Stakes. Even though both horses are credited with the same time, L'Imperator is clearly getting a stronger hold from his exercise jockey, preventing him from opening up. Finally, L'Imperator gallops out ahead of Noor Sahara after they finish.
L'Imperator is possibly another turf star for Brown. He is the choice.
Saratoga Race 8: Forego Stakes (G1)
Complexity holds the pace advantage in this spot, if he wants it. If there
is ever a time to revert back to his pacesetting style shown as a 2-year-old,
this is the race.
Besides that, Complexity owns a nice mud pedigree. His grandsire on top is Distorted Humor. On the bottom side, he is a half-brother to Valadorna, a talented filly who won over slop by five lengths in one of two wet dirt tries.
Complexity did not perform well in the Malibu Stakes (G1) last December with a fourth-place finish in a five horse field. He also ran 11th in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G1). But after a good 2¼-length return win in a Belmont optional claimer July 2, he looks ready for graded stakes races again.
As the probable speed with the right pedigree to handle wet dirt, Complexity is the choice. With a good break, he will enjoy a clear trip from Post 6.
Saratoga Race 9: Sword Dancer Stakes (G1)
Aquaphobia benefited from a ground-saving trip in the United Nations Stakes
(G1) at Monmouth, before tipping out to win by a length over Paret and Corelli, who also starts in this race.
Given Aquaphobia drew Post 2 here, there is no reason he cannot enjoy the same trip. He only needs the horses around him to follow their usual styles.
Marzo in Post 3 is supposed to go to the lead. As Marzo utilizes his speed, Highland Sky figures to take back on the rail as a closer, giving Aquaphobia room to breathe. At that point, Aquaphobia can secure the pocket position and wait patiently once again before tipping out late.
As the son of sprinter Pussycat Doll, Aquaphobia’s bottom side pedigree is a little unorthodox for marathons. However, the 1 3/8 miles in the United Nations did not bother him at all. Based on how he ran there, 1½ miles in the Sword Dancer is not supposed to give him a problem.
Aquaphobia picks up a great turf jockey in Irad Ortiz Jr. as well.
Assuming Aquaphobia is not overbet off the United Nations win, he is the choice.