Weekend Plays: Arklow's class stands out in Louisville Stakes

Turf marathons can prove difficult to handicap at first glance because the differences in ability from top to bottom are smaller on paper. In contrast to dirt marathons where the field separates, long-distance races on the lawn keep rivals clustered in most cases.

Given the margins are therefore compressed, studying class is more useful in these kinds of races and sometimes that leads to a short price. For example, the Grade 3, $100,000 Louisville Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday features the familiar Arklow, who is listed at 8/5.

Arklow leads off the five selections for Saturday races across the country.

Churchill Downs Race 11: Louisville Stakes (G3)

Arklow’s last two losses in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Turf are forgivable.

In the Breeders’ Cup Turf last November, Arklow finished eighth at 9-1, although he was only 2 ¾ lengths behind Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar. Then in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, Arklow crossed the wire fifth by 5 ¼ lengths with little excuse.

Look at the other horses in front of Arklow in the Breeders’ Cup, though, such as United, Anthony Van Dyck and Zulu Alpha.

Bricks and Mortar, of course, was a champion. United went on to capture the San Marcos Stakes (G2) and Whittingham Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita this year. Anthony Van Dyck ran second in the Coronation Cup (G1) back in Europe at Newmarket. Zulu Alpha retained his consistency by taking the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2).

As for the Pegasus Turf, Magic Wand and Instilled Regard completed the trifecta behind Zulu Alpha. Prior to the race, Magic Wand had finished second in the Hong Kong Cup (G1) before a dismal effort in the Saudi Cup on dirt. Instilled Regard recently captured the Fort Marcy Stakes (G2).

With the exception of Admission Office, no other horse besides Arklow shows that kind of company in their running lines.

And it's clear Admission Office loves to hang late, plus he also rides an eight-race losing streak.

By default, Arklow is the choice, and a possible single.

Churchill Downs Race 5: Allowance Optional Claimer

The 8/5 morning line favorite is Finnick the Fierce, a one-eyed closer who knows how to pass tired horses and hit the board in bigger races.

He is beatable.

Art Collector is the third choice at 3-1. Expect bettors to make him second choice at post time ahead of Necker Island. Even if Art Collector's odds drops down, his form is too sharp to ignore.

On Nov. 30, this 3-year-old Bernardini colt romped in a local six-furlong optional claimer by 7 ½ lengths on slop. Art Collector won under trainer Joe Sharp that day but later became disqualified due to a positive test.

When Art Collector returned on May 17 though in another local optional claimer, he proved that he did not need a sloppy track or the handling of Joe Sharp. In Tom Drury's care, Art Collector closed for a 2 3/4-length win over Toledo and Wrecking Crew, two stakes-experiences runners.

For the latter win, Art Collector earned a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Can he stretch out to 1 1/16 miles? Bernardini comes from the stamina-rich A.P. Indy line, while the dam Distorted Legacy is a half-sister to Vision and Verse, the 1999 Belmont Stakes and Travers runner-up.

Art Collector can win this race and step onto the Derby trail.

Churchill Downs Race 10: Allowance Optional Claimer

She Can’t Sing made a strong move on the turn only to hang late for second in a local May 22 optional claimer, losing by 1 ¼ lengths.

Despite the loss, She Can’t Sing earned a career-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, adjusted down from a 110 because of the slow pace.

She also showed more punch in the stretch than in her route attempts in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) and Silverbulletday Stakes. Perhaps finally cutting back to seven furlongs after only route races helped.

Furthermore, the pace will set up as well with Miss T Too and Scolding set to contest the lead. From Post 10, She Can’t Sing projects to sit in midpack and in the clear.

She Can’t Sing is the choice, and fair value at 3-1 or higher.

Gulfstream Park Race 11: Handicap

Last September, Math Wizard closed for an upset win at 31-1 in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) before finishing a credible fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  

Given those promising races last fall, Math Wizard’s return in the Razorback Handicap (G3) back in February is disappointing, as he offered nothing and crossed the wire eighth, 6 3/4 lengths behind. However, Math Wizard possibly came into it short off a 107-day layoff.

Math Wizard now enters off a 117-day layoff, but the situation is different. Notice how Math Wizard has turned in six works in regular intervals since April 26, including a bullet on May 17 with Bird Map.

Morning line favorite Diamond Oops enters this race with only three recent works.

Math Wizard gets one more chance to display the class that made him a Grade 1 winner. With a lively pace lined up, he can capitalize late.

Santa Anita Race 8: Angels Flight Stakes

This is a weak group of five fillies. The morning line favorite Been Studying Her recently closed for third in the Evening Jewel Stakes for Cal-breds. As for Gingham, she finished fifth in the Gardenia Stakes.

On April 26, High On Gin made a mild bid for a uneventful third in an Oaklawn allowance optional claimer. But there are two important notes.

For one, she only finished 4 ½ lengths behind Edgeway, who went on to run second to Four Graces in the Dogwood Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. Also, after the race High On Gin switched from trainer Carl Deville to the higher-profile John Sadler barn.

High On Gin could move forward under the new conditioner. At third choice or higher, she is the picks.