Victory Formation passes on visuals and numbers

From a visual and numbers standpoint, Victory Formation took the right steps toward establishing himself as a major 3-year-old on the Derby trail with his clear win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Sunday.

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Handicappers could tell he ran at least a moderately fast race by watching the start closely and thinking about the final margins, especially in contrast to the Mucho Macho Man Stakes finish at Gulfstream. In addition, Victory Formation gave an easy lesson into the usefulness of speed figures in comparing horses from other tracks.

As pointed out before here, spaced-out margins at the end of a dirt race normally indicate a quality race. Why? It means the race contained fast horses who separated from the slow ones. Without the one or few standout players, the slow horses end up finishing in a cluster resembling a turf race.

But first, watch the start of the Smarty Jones and how Victory Formation broke with alertness. Victory Formation did not exactly walk into the lead early on.

When the gates opened, Victory Formation needed to work to cross over from Post 8 and Western Ghent almost did not let him, but eventually he did. Given that Victory Formation and Western Ghent both broke alertly and went for the front, they likely went at fast clip to get to that point.

Once they straightened out, Victory Formation continued to work a bit to establish the cushion over Western Ghent, who was still eager.

At this point, Victory Formation and Western Ghent created a sizable gap over the mid-pack group behind them. But Victory Formation eventually took his breather on the backside toward the half-mile pole.

The fractions match this visual description, as Victory Formation opened in a lively 23.20 seconds for the opening quarter, and then 47.75. Because of the first fraction, he was still in a great position for a good final time.

When Victory Formation rounded the far turn, he opened up on Western Ghent. His Brad Cox-trained stablemate Angel of Empire tried to make a move, but he could only pass Western Ghent for second. When the horses straightened out for the stretch, Victory Formation maintained his margin over Angel of Empire in second.

In fact, the first four horses in the early part of the stretch held some kind of margin over the horse behind them. Stopping the replay video at 3:17 shows Victory Formation, Angel of Empire, Western Ghent and Denington forming a diagonal line before the final group at the rear.

Under mild urging, Victory Formation won by three lengths over Angel of Empire while completing the one mile in 1:38.14. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his winning effort.

At this point in the season, the 91 Beyer and 109 on TimeformUS at least make Victory Formation a player in this division. But without even looking at those numbers, observers could tell Victory Formation ran a good race by seeing how the first few horses spread out late. 

In contrast, compare the finish of the Smarty Jones to the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream, where 2 1/4 lengths separated the first five horses at the end. Does it seem realistic that all five horses ran a fast race? No.

When dirt races finish in a wild cluster such as this one, it usually means no horse could stand out from the crowd and race did not match par.

Legacy Isle crossed the wire first in the Mucho Macho Man and completed the one mile in 1:37.55. Unfortunately, Legacy Isle became disqualified, which means the Daily Racing Form Stakes Results page shows Dreaming of Kona’s 72 Beyer. Dreaming of Kona crossed the wire second, a half-length behind.

On TimeformUS, Legacy Isle and Dreaming of Kona posted a 97 and 95.

Given the half-length margin, assume Legacy Isle ended with a 71 Beyer Speed Figure. Even though Legacy Isle posted a faster one-mile time at Gulfstream than the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, the figures indicate Victory Formation ran significantly faster than Legacy Isle. Using Beyer, Victory Formation beat Legacy Isle by a huge 20 points.

But again, the slowness of the Mucho Macho Man is also seen visually. Without reading any numbers or figures, anyone could watch the finish of the Mucho Macho Man and realize those horses were struggling to finish.

In contrast, Victory Formation put away his pace opponent in the Smarty Jones and ended the race on a high note with a three-length margin, with another three-length margin from Angel of Empire to Denington in third.

Look for Victory Formation to become a major player in the Oaklawn prep races for the Kentucky Derby.