Use these 3 value fillies in Black-Eyed Susan Stakes

Faiza makes her first start outside of California on Friday as the undefeated favorite in the Grade 2, $300,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico. But despite the nice figure in her last start, enough doubt exists about the quality of Faiza’s recent competition to justify searching for other fillies.

First, it will help to review Faiza's races in order to highlight her weak past opponents out west. 

To start off, Faiza won the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) in March at Santa Anita by 2 1/4 lengths over And Tell Me Nolies, who had stalked the leaders Blessed Touch and Faiza through soft fractions and ran well for second. On the surface, And Tell Me Nolies gave the impression of a filly on the upswing again after running eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. 

Faiza and And Tell Me Nolies stayed home and faced each other again in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) in early April, where Faiza moved early in tandem with Clearly Unhinged after the run-off pacesetter Gila quit badly following a suicidal six-length lead at the half-mile point. Faiza reached the lead on the far turn by a short margin while still battling Clearly Unhinged.

And Tell Me Nolies ranged up on the outside of those fillies for a possible move forward, but then Faiza had more in the tank and pulled clear in the stretch to win by 6 1/2 lengths over And Tell Me Nolies in second again.

Since Faiza came from the Bob Baffert barn, she could not enter the Kentucky Oaks (G1). And Tell Me Nolies did attempt the race, and she ran a non-threatening 12th with trouble on the first turn. The disappointing part is that she never made progress after the trouble. 

Besides winning two races over And Tell Me Nolies, Faiza also won the Starlet Stakes (G1) at Los Alamitos in December and the Las Virgenes Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita in January over Pride of the Nile in second both times.

Last month, Pride of the Nile shipped to Keeneland for the Ashland Stakes (G1) and finished seventh while losing to Defining Purpose by 40 lengths. What happened? Both And Tell Me Nolies and Pride of the Nile disappointed when they faced fillies outside of the California bubble. 

Even though Faiza shows a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure heading into the Black-Eyed Susan, sometimes California runners cannot transfer those big speed figures east against runners from other regions. Today’s Southern California racing scene feels like an isolated bubble with quality concerns. 

At 7-5 or less, Faiza feels too underlaid, even if she does come from the Baffert barn. Instead, here are three alternative options to consider.  

The list starts with Merlazza, who brings a sharp three-race win streak into this race, including an optional-claiming allowance win at Fair Grounds in March and the Valley of the Vapors Stakes at Oaklawn last month.

In the Valley of the Vapors, Merlazza made a nice closing move from mid-pack to pick up her first career stakes win in her initial attempt. 

Merlazza earned a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the stakes win.

Forget about Merlazza’s Oaklawn speed figure though, as she had zero pace to work with as a mid-pack runner and spent most of the race taking dirt behind other fillies. Even with the slow fractions, Merlazza still closed for the one-length win. She did not beat a great field. Regardless, she wants to win and could take the next step for trainer Brad Cox.

The second alternative option to discuss is Sacred Wish on the rail. In her most recent start more than a month ago, Sacred Wish ran a deceptively good second to Affirmative Lady in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). 

Sacred Wish has an excuse for not getting the win. Because she drew post 7 at Gulfstream, Sacred Wish went at least six wide on the first turn. Later on, Sacred Wish took the far turn four or five wide to make for a wide-wide trip. Despite the ground loss, she lost by only two lengths.

In this spot, Sacred Wish drew the rail and can save ground under jockey John Velazquez. Although the stretchout to nine furlongs remains a question, it is notable that Sacred Wish’s dam Indian Wish is a half-sister to Sister Girl Blues, the dam of 2015 Kentucky Derby runner-up Firing Line.

Hoosier Philly is the last option to discuss and one of the more recognizable names as a standout 2-year-old filly last fall thanks to wins in the Rags to Riches Stakes and Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. 

This year, Hoosier Philly came back and ran a disappointing third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds. She faded away in the stretch after making a mild move on the far turn while tipping out wide.  Although Hoosier Philly could not keep up with Pretty Mischievous and Miracle, she gave a decent effort for the first start of a long campaign.

In Hoosier Philly's second start of the year, she folded to fourth by double-digit lengths in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). This effort seems more difficult to forgive considering she had no layoff excuse. On the plus side, she at least made the lead at one point before giving up without a fight. 

Perhaps scratch out Hoosier Philly’s poor Fair Grounds Oaks effort. It came off as a strange race where Pretty Mischievous could not hold off Southlawn with little excuse. In their next meet-up in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs, Pretty Mischievous won by a narrow margin and Southlawn ended up a non-threatening 10th, although Southlawn did not have a great trip.

With many bettors scared to burn money on Hoosier Philly this time, she will offer the right odds to take a chance on her. But this is the last chance. 

Overall, the Black-Eyed Susan is not the easiest race to decipher for those who remain skeptical of Faiza, especially with all the low speed figures for the other fillies. Ignore the speed figures this time. From a visual standpoint, Merlazza, Sacred Wish and Hoosier Philly all have ability and will offer more attractive odds.