Kentucky Derby 2023: Use best stalker and closer on top
Choosing one horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby feels near impossible given the questions surrounding the contenders. But for players who wish to use two horses, one strategy is to find the best speed horse and best closer in order to give tickets a different horse on top for different pace scenarios.
The best speed horse is the Japan-based shipper Derma Sotogake.
In recent years, the horse-breeding industry in Japan has put an emphasis on blending American speed on top of stamina. With Mind Your Biscuits on top, Derma Sotogake shows an American sprinter on top. But on his bottom side, there are good stamina influences such as Neo Universe and Sunday Silence.
Derma Sotogake put together a three-race win streak in Japan last year, which included his maiden win, the Mochinoki Sho and a local Grade 1 race known as the Zen – Nippon Nisai Yushun. Considering his maiden and Mochinoki Sho wins both came at nine furlongs, his stamina was seen early.
In his maiden win, Derma Sotogake initially traveled in a rank manner while tugging at his rider’s hold early in the pressing position. But he displayed his raw talent when he shook free to win by four lengths.
Then in the two stakes races in Japan, Derma Sotogake ran as a more patient stalker with a nice closing punch. Derma Sotogake won by only a nose over Continuar in the Mochinoki Sho and a head over Omatsuri Otoko in the Zen – Nippon Nisai Yushun, but he stepped forward each time.
Derma Sotogake also tried to stalk the pace in the Saudi Derby (G3), but Commissioner King and Havnameltdown ended up slipping away on the turn.
In the UAE Derby (G2) though, Derma Sotogake went straight to the front from the rail. From there, Derma Sotogake kept a half-length lead over Dura Erede on the far side and then started to edge clear at the top of the stretch.
Derma Sotogake went on to open up and cross the wire first by 5 1/2 lengths over Dura Erede, with Continuar a well-beaten third and 10 lengths behind.
Granted, maybe the rail post forced the jockey to use Derma Sotogake’s speed in order to not become caught behind horses. Regardless, Derma Sotogake proved he could come out of the gate quickly and secure the lead.
From post 15, Derma Sotogake will need to break well again and clear most of the inside horses in order to not get caught too wide heading into the turn. Given his natural tactical speed, the connections are likely to instruct jockey Christophe Lemaire to send him up near the front. If all goes well, Derma Sotogake should land somewhere in an outside stalking position around fourth, fifth or sixth, if not even closer to the lead.
As for the best closing horse, that is Tapit Trice, who brings a consistent 5: 4-0-1 record and four-race win streak heading into the Run for the Roses.
Two starts ago, Tapit Trice took the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) with an impressive closing rush to prevail by two lengths. The modest margin does not give justice to how the move came across from a visual standpoint. Tapit Trice needed to close from eighth in a 12-horse field at the top of the stretch, and he did in almost a flash when pressed to go.
The problem is that Tapit Trice loves to break slowly, which put him in a far-back position in the first place in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tapit Trice also broke slowly in his previous races, but this time the poor break put Tapit Trice near the back of the field early.
In the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Tapit Trice came out of the gate slightly better under Luis Saez. From a mid-pack spot around the first turn, Saez then guided Tapit Trice outside and ended up making an early move.
On the far turn, Tapit Trice found himself running alongside Verifying, and the two of them opened up in the stretch while dueling each other. Tapit Trice held an advantage and outkicked Verifying to prevail by a neck.
Tapit Trice earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, which falls only one point short of the 100 Beyer Mandarin Hero earned in his Santa Anita Derby (G1) effort. From a visual standpoint though, the Blue Grass looked like the strongest prep race, with Tapit Trice and Verifying separating from the rest of the field.
In addition, speed figures are not the best way to measure Tapit Trice’s ability. This type of closing horse will adjust to the competition and find a way to give his best effort when he needs his best to win.
In other words, Tapit Trice looks like the best closing horse in the Derby field. If Saez can guide him outside, Tapit Trice can take care of the rest by closing in on the leaders early and challenging for the lead by the far turn. Assuming Tapit Trice can get into the mix by that point, then no one will outkick him.
As for extra horses to use underneath Derma Sotogake and Tapit Trice, Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire and Disarm are candidates to finish second.
Similar to Derma Sotogake, Kingsbarns owns natural tactical speed. He wants to stalk the pace, but he could also lead as shown in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in late March. Kingsbarns set early crawling fractions of 24.71, 49.60 and 1:14.69 before opening up in the stretch run and winning by 3 1/2 lengths over a closing Disarm.
Angel of Empire brings a consistent 6: 4-0-1 record into the race. His only blemish came when he did not hit the board on grass at Kentucky Downs.
In his last two starts, Angel of Empire won both the Risen Star Stakes (G2) by one length and the Arkansas Derby (G1) by 4 1/4 lengths at. Both winning efforts came from a closing position in the initial stages. But his Beyer Speed Figures seem kind of light relative to the other main contenders.
As stated above, Disarm made a nice closing move in the Louisiana Derby to finish second. But then Disarm gave a disappointing effort in the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland by finishing a flat third and losing by 4 1/4 lengths.
Considering his better performance in the Louisiana Derby at the 1 3/16 mile distance, maybe Disarm wants to run in longer routes.
Here are the exacta wheels.
5,17 / 5,14,17
5,17 / 6 (for less money)
5,17 / 11 (for the least money)