Two value picks to consider on Breeders' Cup Day 1

Breeders’ Cup week at Del Mar has finally arrived. As usual, the series of races is split into two days on Friday and Saturday. On Friday, 2-year-olds take center stage with five races for handicappers to dive into.

The two value picks below are found on Friday in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Given the large fields and high number of Europeans in the juvenile turf races, those races will require more time to study.

Here are the two value picks for Breeders’ Cup Day 1. 

Del Mar Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

The Brad Cox-trained Juju’s Map enters this race with plenty of momentum after breaking her maiden by 5 3/4 lengths at Ellis Park and taking the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) by 4 1/4 lengths with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Juju’s Map’s 112 on TimeformUS for the Alcibiades is second only to Echo Zulu’s 113 for winning the Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in September.

As an undefeated Gun Runner filly trained by Steve Asmussen, Echo Zulu is the expected favorite in the Juvenile Fillies. Her 7 1/4-length win in the Frizette Stakes (G1) probably cements Echo Zulu’s status as the favorite, although she did not improve speed-figure-wise with a 108 on TimeformUS. 

In terms of win betting, if Juju’s Map and Echo Zulu are equal on speed figures, why not take Juju’s Map at a slightly higher price?

Also, Juju’s Map looks more versatile at this point. She can sit a few lengths off the leader, while Echo Zulu seems more eager to contest the pace.  

And Juju’s Map’s post position might not matter. The rail is not a problem, as she won the Alcibiades after breaking from the inside. If Juju’s Map draws Post 8, that is not a huge deal either. She can use her speed to clear.

This Liam's Map filly is capable of winning at an attractive price.

Best value: Juju’s Map

Del Mar Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Commandperformance looks like the right value play off his second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont behind Jack Christopher. In European betting, he remains the third choice at best, with Jack Christopher taking up most of the attention and Corniche also popular.

Consider that Commandperformance’s 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure for finishing second in the Champagne by almost three lengths falls second only to Jack Christopher’s 123 for winning the race. Corniche holds the third highest TimeformUS figure back at 108.

Why would Commandperformance make up the difference?

On the switch to two turns at a slightly longer distance, anything can happen. Jack Christopher might not handle the changes in configuration and distance, while Commandperformance could thrive in a two-turn route.

Look at the differences in their pedigrees.

Jack Christopher’s sire Munnings can create routers, but if he is paired with a sprinter or a dam with sprinter blood, the result is probably a sprinter.

On that point, Jack Christopher’s dam Rushin No Blushin is a half-sister to the talented Street Boss, who ran as a sprinter during his career and won both the 2008 Triple Bend Invitational (G1) and Bing Crosby Handicap (G1).

In contrast, Commandperformance is a son of Union Rags, the winner of the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Also, Commandperformance’s dam Smitten is sired by Tapit, the sire of four Belmont winners in the last 10 years.

Also notice that Commandperformance’s third dam Snit was a versatile runner who won the 1998 Turnback the Alarm Stakes at nine furlongs.

Commandperformance has plenty of route blood inside him, but Jack Christopher seems a bit short in stamina influence on top and bottom.

Jack Christopher might find himself pace-compromised as well, with Corniche a likely candidate to show speed for trainer Bob Baffert. If not Corniche, then Corniche’s stablemate Pinehurst could find himself contesting the lead on the stretchout. With Pinehurst lacking route experience and used to a sprint pace, he might not handle a slower route tempo.   

Commandperformance runs as a closer. In most dirt races, the closing style is a hindrance because the speed horses can slip away on the turn and create separation. In larger fields, there is also traffic that could stop closers. But in this situation, Commandperformance might receive a nice setup as long as one or both of the Baffert-trained runners send.

Win or lose, Commandperformance is a good win bet as the third choice or higher. If he falls lower than third choice, then rethink the bet. 

Best value: Commandperformance