Two late developers to watch on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail

Five months into the extended 2020 Kentucky Derby prep season, the top horses in the 3-year-old division are established and, not surprisingly, most reside in the Bob Baffert barn.

Nadal and Charlatan, the two winners of the split Arkansas Derby (G1) last weekend, sit on top of numerous Derby lists. Authentic places near those two stablemates in most rankings as another undefeated Baffert horse. For a non-Baffert runner, the Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz the Law remains in the mix.

But what if another horse emerges in the next few months?

For example, could a colt such as Tizamagician transform into a top 3-year-old? With only one win in seven starts and a lackluster fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), the idea does not seem realistic, at least right now. Because of the revised Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby date, however, try look at how this division could change quite a bit in the coming months.

A Derby postponement won't change how the race itself is handicapped. Quality horses with tactical speed will still hold the advantage, especially in a 20-horse field. However, the new date does open the door for late-developing horses to enter the discussion.

What makes Tizamagician a candidate to join the top?

To start off, as a son of Tiznow out of the Dixie Union mare Magic Union, Tizamagician possesses the right pedigree for this trajectory.

Not only is two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Tiznow known as a sire of late-developing runners, but he also took a while to reach the top of his 3-year-old division as well. Back in 2000, Tiznow broke his maiden in late May after his peers already competed in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

Magic Union did not reach those same heights. But it also took six tries to break her maiden as a 3-year-old filly in 2013, which makes her another late developer. All three of Magic Union’s wins came in two-turn dirt routes as well.

The connections viewed Magic Union as a filly with stamina right off the bat, as they switched her to a one-mile route after closing for fourth in a six-furlong maiden sprint to begin her career.

The influence of Tiznow and Magic Union shows in Tizamagician’s past performances, as it took him six tries to win his first race. All three of those family members won for the first time in their 3-year-old seasons.

Tizamagician did not set the world on fire in his Jan. 1 maiden win while prevailing by 2 ½ lengths with a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But notice that the other board hitters, Divine Armor and Kiss Today Goodbye, eventually ran 1-2 on Feb. 22. Tizamagician also improved to a 114 TimeformUS figure in his otherwise mediocre fourth-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes behind Thousand Words.

When it comes to slow-developing horses, the changes will not happen overnight. He needs points sooner rather than later, but watch for signs of Tizamagician making further improvement soon. We may have already seen it in the UAE Derby (G2) had that race not been canceled at the end of March.

Tizamagician's trainer, by the way, is the patient Hall of Famer Richard Mandella. The multiple Grade 1 winner Omaha Beach recently needed five tries to break his maiden for the barn before his rise up the class ladder.

My other 3-year-old to watch in the longterm is Farmington Road.  

This colt is by Quality Road, the winner of the 2009 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in his 3-year-old season. Unlike Tiznow, Quality Road is not generally regarded as a sire of late-developing horses.

However, Farmington Road is out of Silver La Belle. Silver La Belle did not start as a 2-year-old. In 2010, she took four tries to break her maiden and finally accomplished the feat in a nine-furlong off-the-turf event at Churchill Downs.

Farmington Road broke his maiden in his third start on Jan. 12 at Tampa Bay Downs by 1 ¾ lengths over Noble Empire. The two of them separated from the field, with Noble Empire crossing the wire 16 ¾ lengths over the third-place horse.

That encouraged the connections enough to give the Risen Star Stakes (G2) a shot. Farmington Road did not embarrass himself, closing for a good fourth after a wide trip. He only lost to Mr. Monomoy by 4 ½ lengths despite falling back by 9 ¼ lengths.

Farmington Road then rallied for a close second in the Oaklawn Stakes, barely missing by half a length to Mr Big News after closing over a sloppy track. Again, he showed some promise, but ultimately came up short with some minor flaws, not quite able to maintain a straight line in the stretch.

Next, Farmington Road closed for fourth again in the second division of the Arkansas Derby (G1), losing to Nadal by seven lengths after making a strong middle move and getting within 4 ½ lengths. Nadal found another gear late and put more lengths on the field.

Nevertheless, Farmington Road performed credibly to complete the superfecta after poor early position compromised him.

This Todd Pletcher-trained runner fits the bill as a developing horse out of a stamina-oriented mare. If he could move forward and perhaps display a touch more early speed, he could become a top 3-year-old.

Look for improving sophomores this summer with slow-developing and stamina-oriented families. Tiznow didn't run in the 2000 Kentucky Derby because he did not progress fast enough, or even break his maiden by the time the race ran. But he kept moving forward with runner-up finishes in the Swaps Stakes (G1) and Pacific Classic (G1) later that summer. He is the prototype for the kind of horse to watch.

The next Tiznow could be flying under the radar, and this time, the later Kentucky Derby date could allow him to pick up a piece of the Triple Crown.