Two-month gap fits Arcangelo in Breeders' Cup Classic

One noticeable pattern in the campaign of 3-year-old division leader Arcangelo heading into the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 4 is the two-month gap between most of his races. Of the big 3-year-old names pointing to the Classic, the lack of a race in late September or October might affect him the least.

Here is an overview of Arcangelo’s successful rise from a maiden to becoming the leading 3-year-old, with a focus on the spacing between in each race.

Arcangelo began his year on Jan. 14 at Gulfstream Park. He ran fourth after a troubled trip in a maiden special weight won by the familiar Kingsbarns, who later captured the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and added to the blazing pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby.

When Arcangelo tried again to break his maiden at Gulfstream two months later on March 18, he won by 3 1/2 lengths with a stakes-worthy 118 figure on TimeformUS.   

Almost two months after the maiden win, Arcangelo made his graded stakes debut in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Belmont on May 13. In this race, Arcangelo burst onto the national scene when he won by a head over the Brad Cox-trained Bishops Bay after overcoming a slow pace scenario and a hard-fought stretch battle.

Off the Peter Pan win, Arcangelo became a Belmont Stakes contender, although he would need to break the two-month pattern and run on June 10.

Antonucci decided to enter Arcangelo in the Belmont, and he took another step forward and won the third leg of the Triple Crown by 1 1/2 lengths over Forte, who arguably was the division leader at the time. On TimeformUS, Arcangelo hit another career high of 120 for the win.

Arcangelo went back to the two-month schedule when he bypassed a prep race for the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 26. From a handicapping standpoint, some worried that skipping a prep race made him less fit than other 3-year-olds such as Forte and Mage.  

Despite the lack of a traditional prep race, Arcangelo won the Travers by a length over Disarm for his second Grade 1 win. Forte flattened out to fourth after an odd trip, and Mage ended up last after surprisingly losing interest midway through the race.

Arcangelo earned another career high of 126 on TimeformUS for the Travers win. 

The Breeders’ Cup Classic runs just over two months after the Travers, which means the spacing is perfect for Arcangelo to fire his best.

In contrast, Forte and Mage might come into the Breeders’ Cup Classic a little bit short off their odd Travers Stakes runs and no other prep race.

Forte has had an unusual schedule in general after his Florida Derby (G1) win at Gulfstream on April 1. He was forced to skip the Kentucky Derby and wait for the Belmont Stakes, which meant he came into the dirt marathon without the benefit of experiencing 10 furlongs first. 

To Forte’s credit, he ran second to Arcangelo in the Belmont after making a wide move on the far turn. Forte then won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga on July 29 over a good pacesetter in Saudi Crown, who went on to capture the Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

But Forte's flat run in the Travers remains a puzzling performance. In addition, Forte has reportedly lost training time because of a quarter crack.

Is Forte fit enough for the Breeders’ Cup?

Mage barely tried in the Travers Stakes. The Kentucky Derby champion made his return to the work tab on Oct. 1 and has two works in tow as of this writing. Considering Mage did not give his best at Saratoga, he also might lack the fitness to make a serious run for the win.

The Derby hero will need to go from losing by 15 lengths in a late-August race to capturing the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and that sounds very difficult on paper, especially with his mental state. Mage could benefit from a confidence booster before running in another Grade 1.

Does Arabian Knight need another prep race? He just won the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar against older horses on Sept. 2, which gives him a slight edge in experience outside of the 3-year-old division. 

Because Arabian Knight uses a pacesetting style, he does not need to get rough and bump around in traffic with horses in mid-pack. With his running style in mind and proven success against older, the lack of a final prep race might not bother him, especially with Bob Baffert’s knowledge in getting horses to fire their best in big races off a break.

With that said, it gives pause for concern that Arabian Knight will make only his fifth career start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

Arcangelo will make his seventh career start in the Classic. All signs point to another big performance from the Arrogate colt. If Arcangelo does lose and fails to finish off the storybook year, the lack of a September or October race will not be the reason.