2 Saratoga juveniles to watch as Kentucky Derby trail begins

With the Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes running on Saturday at Churchill Downs, the official road to Kentucky Derby 2024 has begun. Now is the time to start forgetting about some of the earlier 2-year-old winners and focus on the ones with the best chance to progress on the tiring Derby trail.  

Here are two 2-year-olds from the Saratoga meet to watch on the trail.

1. Seize the Grey

The son of Arrogate makes his fourth career start in the Iroquois Stakes for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and owner My Racehorse. Although Seize the Grey lacks a fast race on paper, this is a talented runner to watch. 

Notice the running-line pattern in Seize the Grey's most recent race, which came in the off-the-turf Skidmore Stakes on Aug. 18 at Saratoga. Seize the Grey broke last in the 5 1/2-furlong race and ended up seven lengths behind at the half-mile before piecing together a nice rally to lose by 2 3/4 lengths.

The runner line for that race is a “Z pattern,” which means Seize the Grey lost some ground at one point in the race before gaining it back again. One reason for the pattern is the short distance, as horses meant for routes typically lose contact in the middle portion of a sprint race and rally late.

As a son of Arrogate, Seize the Grey is supposed to want more distance, as well as additional time to develop. Also note the dam Smart Shopping, who is a half-sister to the stakes router Power Broker, the winner of the 2012 FrontRunner Stakes (G1), now known as the American Pharoah Stakes).

Perhaps Seize the Grey breaks through in this one-mile trail race. But if not, watch for him down the road as an improving colt who will love going long.

2. Locked

The most impressive maiden winner at Saratoga this year might be the flashy maiden winner Locked, who broke his maiden in memorable fashion on Sept. 1 for trainer Todd Pletcher and the team of Eclipse Thoroughbred and Walmac Farm.      

After pressing the leader Arteta, Locked put his pace opponent away and opened up on them late to win by 7 1/4 lengths. Locked earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form for his romp and a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The TimeformUS figure for the Sept. 1 maiden race became affected by the slow pace, otherwise it would end up a few points higher.

The runner-up Drum Roll Please lost by 7 1/4 lengths, but he also had 13 lengths of separation between him and the third-place Sturdy. As stated before on this blog, handicappers sometimes can tell if a race is fast without the fractions or final time by the margins between the horses, because slow races tend to result in bunched-up fields and vice versa.

Pedigree-wise, Locked appears made for routes as a son of Gun Runner out of the Malibu Moon mare Luna Rosa. Luna Rosa is a half-sister to Always a Princess, the 2011 La Cañada Stakes (G2) winner when they carded the race at nine furlongs. Luna Rosa’s other successful half-sister Gabby’s Golden Gal won the 2009 Sunland Park Oaks and Acorn Stakes (G1) as a 3-year-old filly.

Wherever Locked shows up next, he is a major threat. Look for him to make an early splash on the Derby trail, especially with Todd Pletcher behind him.