Breeders’ Cup 2023: 2 Distaff long shots can hit the board
Given all the fillies and mares with speed pointing toward the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park, long-shot players may want to look at two runners who ran against a slow pace in their final prep races. One of them is a closer, while the other stalks the pace.
Le Da Vida had a tough start this year with three straight losses in 1 1/16-mile races. However, this 6-year-old daughter of Gemologist has come alive in 1 1/8-mile races as seen when she ran second to Idiomatic in the Spinster Stakes (G1) at Keeneland this month.
In the Spinster, Idiomatic set fractions of 24.49, 48.31 and 1:12.24 while running on a loose, uncontested lead. Whenever good speed horses set those types of fractions on dirt, they almost always become invincible in the stretch with all that energy reserved in the early stages.
Le Da Vida initially ran in last with 4 1/2 lengths to make up through the opening quarter, and that margin increased at the half-mile fraction.
On the turn, though, Le Da Vida began to pass horses and came into the top of the stretch just outside of Bellamore in second. Unfortunately, Idiomatic opened up at that point and became uncatchable in the stretch. But Le Da Vida deserved credit for overcoming the pace and moving past Bellamore and getting clear of that foe to secure second.
Le Da Vida lost to Idiomatic by 4 1/4 lengths, but she also ran second by 2 1/2 lengths over Bellamore in third. From Bellamore to Nest in fourth came another 4 1/2 lengths. The spaced-out margins hint at a quality race.
One flaw to point out about this mare is Le Da Vida never switches leads. But it does not seem to affect her ability to handle 1 1/8 miles.
Whether Le Da Vida can win depends on the pace. At double-digit odds, Le Da Vida can either take advantage of a pace collapse to win or light up one of the underneath spots for vertical bets. Trainer Ignacio Correas won the 2019 Distaff with the Argentina-bred Blue Prize.
A Mo Reay is another Distaff probable who ran against a slow pace last time. This older filly either can stalk or close depending on the situation.
In her last prep race for the Distaff, A Mo Reay went up against a difficult pace scenario in the Beldame Stakes (G2) when Randomized led the field through fractions of 25.02, 49.18 and 1:12.72. For a filly who just won the Alabama Stakes (G1), Randomized was having a nice walk.
A Mo Reay tried to stay close throughout the race while traveling on the rail and had a chance when the inside opened up turning for home.
But with all that energy saved up from earlier, Randomized began to open up under mild urging and went on to win by 3 3/4 lengths. To A Mo Reay’s credit, she kept on trying and had a clear 4 3/4 lengths on Nostalgic in third. She just could not close the gap after the slow pace.
One separate point about A Mo Reay is she won the Beholder Mile back in May at Santa Anita, which makes her a Grade 1 winner over the Distaff course. She knows how to handle the long plane trip and the track surface.
A Mo Reay also can sit a little farther back than one length. If she could travel in a stalking position about three to four lengths behind in the Distaff, that could give this filly an ideal stalking position to strike first.
One noticeable strike against A Mo Reay is she does not seem her best at 1 1/8 miles. Her wins this year came at 1 1/16 miles and one mile. Nevertheless, she still packs a punch at nine furlongs and remains a player for one of the underneath spots.
Bettors do not often receive double-digit odds on a good Brad Cox-trained runner. Yet they almost certainly will receive odds longer than 9-1 on A Mo Reay considering the amount of classy runners in the Distaff. If A Mo Reay floats up to a big price, then give her strong consideration.
Those two runners were compromised last time by loose pacesetters and slow fractions. Both could rebound in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as long as the expected speed horses show up. Keep them in mind for underneath spots or even to win, depending on the final field.