Travers pace looks moderate unless 1 speedball shows up

Based on the probables listed on Horse Racing Nation, the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes on Aug. 26 might feature a moderate pace with three potential speed horses lined up, two of them trained by Bob Baffert. But one speedy 3-year-old listed as possible can shake up the pace.

Baffert is expected to bring the Preakness champion National Treasure and Reincarnate to Saratoga for the midsummer derby, and both of them are capable of securing the lead if asked to run out of the gate. But if pressed to rate one of them as faster than the other, then Reincarnate has an edge.

Reincarnate took part in the blistering pace scenario seen in the Kentucky Derby. Although he did not set the pace, he ran just outside of Verifying and Kingsbarns through 22.45, 45.73 and 1.10.11 fractions before folding badly late. TimeformUS gave a red label to the half-mile and six-furlong fraction.

Thanks to his aggressive early tactics and the fast pace scenario, Reincarnate finished 13th and 24 1/2 lengths behind the winner Mage.

After skipping the last two legs of the Triple Crown series, Reincarnate took the lead again in the Los Alamitos Derby and led from gate to wire in the nine-furlong race through more moderate fractions of 23.23 and 47.75 seconds.

With no pace opponents this time and a slight track bias helping him, Reincarnate coasted to a 2 1/2-length win over the closing Skinner in second.  

In contrast to Reincarnate’s Derby effort, National Treasure set a slow pace while uncontested in the Preakness Stakes through 23.95, 48.92 and 1:13.49 fractions for the 1 3/16-mile distance. TimeformUS does not label those fractions as slow, but for the level, they are likely slow and set up National Treasure's strong late finish.

National Treasure came into the top of the stretch in the Preakness with plenty of run and found enough to win a fierce battle with Blazing Sevens, who somehow moved up next to National Treasure on the far turn despite those slow fractions.

In the Belmont Stakes three weeks later, National Treasure led the field uncontested again. But this time, he set a fast pace relative to the distance with early fractions of 23.63, 47.69 and 1:12.56. TimeformUS gave the red label to the half-mile and six-furlong fraction, as well as to the one-mile fraction where Arcangelo took over the lead.

The fast early pace took a toll on National Treasure, and he faded to sixth. But the point is that he can secure the lead and set a legitimate pace if asked. But given those Derby fractions Reincarnate went through, he is probably faster and can hit the front more naturally if Baffert wants him to lead.

Since Reincarnate and National Treasure share both the same trainer in Baffert and the same group of owners, they likely will not duel each other if they both enter. Baffert would direct one to set the pace and one to stalk.

The only other probable who could conceivably contest the pace is Scotland, although he does come from a lower class of 3-year-olds.

In his most recent start, Scotland set the pace in the local Curlin Stakes while under pressure from Il Miracolo through moderate fractions of 23.69, 47.56 and 1.11.12. Perhaps Scotland took the lead in this situation only because of the five-horse field. He ran as a closer in his other races.

The HRN list also shows Paddington as a possible entry. Paddington likely cannot win, but with his early speed, this runner is capable of making life difficult for Reincarnate, National Treasure or even Scotland.

Last month in a local nine-furlong starter allowance, Paddington ran off with the lead and led by 3 1/2 lengths at the half-mile point before taking a slight breather. He then drew clear late to dominate the others by 8 1/2 lengths. In that starter allowance, Paddington made his first start for trainer Lina Rice.

When Paddington ran for trainer Brad Cox, he also set the pace in a maiden claimer at Ellis Park before opening up late to win by a huge 19 1/2 lengths.

Paddington wants the lead. But his go-for-broke style seems to clash with Reincarnate and National Treasure, as Baffert usually sends one of his horses to the front even if that horse has to run fast to get there.

As for the favorites Forte, Arcangelo and Mage, they should find themselves in either a stalking or mid-pack position along with Disarm. Those four 3-year-olds might end up stealing the show late no matter how fast or slow the pace goes with no real superstar on the front end of the field.

If Paddington does not show up, then expect moderate fractions with one of the Baffert runners receiving mild pressure from Scotland.