Title Ready an Indiana Derby upset threat to King Zachary

Unlike his legendary second dam Personal Ensign, who retired undefeated in 1988 as the Champion Older Mare and entered the Hall of Fame in 1993, the 3-year-old colt Title Ready is struggling to reach the top level in his division. He will get another chance to climb the ladder in Saturday's Grade 3, $500,000 Indiana Derby.

Can he pull off the upset at possibly double-digit odds?

Title Ready’s 9: 2-2-1 record at least shows he likes to hit the board for trainer Steve Asmussen. He also just ran a solid fourth in the Ohio Derby (G3), losing by fewer than two lengths to Core Beliefs, who previously finished second in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3).

In addition, the runner-up Lone Sailor ran a credible fifth in the Preakness Stakes one month earlier. For a Grade 3 race, the Ohio Derby was not the worst field. 

Yet, despite only losing by a small margin and earning a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure, Title Ready is a generous 12-1 on the Indiana Derby morning line.

Look at the other three horses at 10-1 or above and their flaws: 

• Givemeaminit acts like a sprinter with his habit of losing ground in the lane when routing. Even though the Louisiana-bred runner finished sixth in the Woody Stephens at seven furlongs, he actually gained ground in the stretch run, as opposed to his previous three races at route distances where he faded. Wait for him to cut back again.  

• As for The Money Dance, none of his races appear fast enough to hit the board. He recently earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure in a local prep race, and none of his other speed figures in 10 career starts reach 110 or higher. He needs to improve.

• Finally, Funny Duck is most likely a mud specialist. He won the Pat Day Mile in the slop by more than four lengths, and then regressed in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) on fast dirt against King Zachary, losing by 13 lengths. His career debut on fast dirt resulted in a 10-length loss too, although a horse’s initial start is always forgivable.

In other words, Title Ready is the best longshot in a race that can become wide open. TimeformUS gives him all five checkmarks, and while the Pace Projector believes he will be up close through a fast pace, it does not put him on the lead.

Admittedly, the Projector places the 6/5 favorite King Zachary in an even better position in sixth off a fast pace. He also owns the highest last-race speed figure.

In fact, his Matt Winn effort is so good that it is almost unbelievable. This is a horse who got drowned by over 13 lengths in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), then struggled to win an allowance event against a cupcake field at Churchill Downs.

Young horses are always capable of moving forward, but something does not feel right. He will need to prove that race can be duplicated.

If King Zachary’s sudden upswing in form feels odd, then how about Trigger Warning? This colt lost an ungraded Turf Paradise stakes race on Dec. 30 by two lengths, and then got thrown to the wolves in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds in his next start, losing by 76 lengths, ending the connections' Kentucky Derby dreams quickly.

Trigger Warning switched trainers a few times since then, and his form improved with each switch. Now, he comes into this race off a close third in the Ohio Derby at 86-1.

Along with King Zachary and Title Ready, Trigger Warning is one of only three horses to break 120 on the TimeformUS scale in his last start. He is a surprising contender.

But, be careful with this $6,000 horse who broke his maiden at Turf Paradise. Sometimes cheap horses who make their way up the ladder to graded stakes races do not last long at this level. Conquest Mo Money from last year's Preakness is one example. 

Dark Vader is a threat as well after a close third in the ungraded Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park. Previously, he won an allowance at Santa Anita and finished fifth by 10 lengths in the Sunland Derby (G3). Although consistent, he is not an exciting horse.

But maybe trainer Peter Eurton has some Jedi tricks up his sleeve. With only eight career starts, the Tale of Ekati colt can still move forward like King Zachary and Trigger Warning, and win his first graded stakes race. He should find himself in the mix. 

Now to discuss two horses not mentioned yet, Blame the Rider and Axelrod:

Blame the Rider is 6-1 on the morning line. While his pedigree says he can run on dirt, he appears to be a nicer turf horse on paper. Since switching to green, he has not finished worse than second in three starts. Why is he switching back to dirt?

Axelrod appeared to head in the same direction earlier this year, with a noticeable improvement in speed figures when running on Santa Anita’s downhill turf. But he finished runner-up on dirt in the Affirmed (G3), so the connections brought him here.  

Like The Money Dance, none of Axelrod’s speed figures break 110. When the “Weight On” function is applied though on TimeformUS, he does come close with two 108s.

Blame the Rider and Axelrod simply hold little chance of winning, as does Givemeaminit, The Money Dance and Funny Duck. They are useable underneath.

The winner should come from the group of King Zachary, Dark Vader, Trigger Warning and Title Ready. If Title Ready holds at 12-1, then the green light is on. If his odds falls below 10-1, then he still deserves consideration, but just use more caution.