Tips for Americans betting Royal Ascot's 2018 races

From Tuesday through Saturday, the prestigious Royal Ascot meet will be held in England. While racing fans in America will have unprecedented access to watching the races, questions remain on how to play them, as past performances are different, and most of the runners are unfamiliar outside of those we've seen in the Breeders' Cup.

In any case, here are some pointers for approaching Royal Ascot. 

For starters, pay attention to the course configuration of each race. The meet will start on Tuesday with the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) run on a straightaway mile course. No major racetrack in America offers a straight one-mile turf race. As for a Royal Ascot race with a turn, the Prince of Wales’s (G1) is run at approximately 10 furlongs and includes one right-hand turn, as opposed to the standard left-hand turns in North America. Some horses might prefer a turn as opposed to none.

Perhaps the first point is not the biggest deal, but it helps to know how the race will be run, so that bettors can dig through a horse’s record and see if there is experience facing the same scenario.

Also, class is emphasized, especially because bettors will not get normal speed figures with which to work. Search for horses with successful graded (or group) stakes experience in their records.

In particular, look at the names of the horses they ran against. For example, according to At The Races, Barsanti is around 4-1 to 9/2 on most betting sites for the Hardwicke Stakes (G2) on Saturday. But his recent win did not come in a group stakes, and the runner-up Mirage Dancer only won a listed stakes by a small margin next time out.

Using that example, handicapping Royal Ascot can be similar to American races. Obviously, it is preferable to pick horses proven at a higher class. But new Royal Ascot bettors from America are probably not familiar with the competition over there, so it helps to do some research, clicking through names to get those records. For what it is worth, Timeform (not TimeformUS, but the regular Timeform) offers a similar system to At The Races.

Certainly, bettors can dig for traditional American-style past performances too. But why? The Euro runners will still lack running lines, and normal speed figures are still not available, so it is more helpful to go with an online-based system.

As for how to analyze pace without running lines, get used to watching the replays. For example, Romanised is running as one of the main contenders in the St. James’s Palace Stakes (G1) on Tuesday. Because he only ran in Europe, bettors over here are probably not familiar with him. Thankfully, his last race in Ireland is on YouTube.

From watching the Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1), it appears Romanised likes to come from behind. At 25-1, did he take advantage of the pace or anything else? That is for handicappers to decide. Royal Ascot almost forces bettors to watch replays because of the strange past performances, but at the same time it is a good habit to get into for American races.

There are bettors out there who will play Lady Aurelia in the King’s Stand Stakes (G1) only because they are familiar with the defending champion. Plus, she is a huge fan favorite. But watching replays to get familiar with her European rivals could help players find value elsewhere.

Maybe she deserves to be the favorite. The point is, horses such as Battaash and Blue Point might not be taken as seriously because they never raced in North America. Watching replays of what they did overseas will help understand them better.

If bettors can understand the Euros more, they will not be tied down to a heavy favorite like Lady Aurelia, who recently lost her comeback at Keeneland.

Also, when encountering Euros that did start in North American a couple of times without success, do not hold poor American form too harshly against them.

Going back to the Hardwicke, the 5-year-old Idaho is competing, and this Aidan O’Brien runner always turns in a clunker every time to attempts a race in North America. Look up his flat efforts in the Canadian International (G1) and Sword Dancer Stakes (G1).

Despite some questionable European form too, he might do well on Saturday given his status as a two-time Group 2 winner at 12 furlongs, and he just won a Group 3 at 13 ½ furlongs in May. Some Euros do not acclimate to North America well.

In reverse, what might affect form in North American horses trying Royal Ascot is the ban on Lasix overseas. Two years ago, there was some discussion over how American turf star Tepin would fare in the Queen Anne without Lasix, and she won. Nevertheless, it is a factor to keep in mind. Not every horse can be as great or special as Tepin.

There is an argument that Lasix does not affect horses at all. That is a separate discussion entirely.

And if you don't have the time to analyze every replay? Some bettors will wager on their favorite pedigrees (such as Frankel babies) or jockeys and find success. Not everyone can find an hour or two to research one race.

Most Americans will find trouble finding time to bet, as the races will be run during normal work hours, except for the Saturday card.

For those who can watch and play, most of the ADW companies such as TVG and TwinSpires should carry the races. Just search for hidden value at Royal Ascot if possible, no matter what system or angle is used, and strike those races.